L’École des cotes

Magdalena Frech v Eva Lys

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-16 09:13 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Magdalena Frech (Local)

Prévision 55.84%1.79cote équitable
EV +3.31%
Avantage +1.79%
Kelly +3.89%
Croissance +0.129%

avec la cote maximale 1.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.70%56.34%55.70%61.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.491.681.701.8567.11%59.50%58.82%54.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Eva Lys (Visiteur)

Prévision 44.16%2.26cote équitable
EV +8.19%
Avantage +3.34%
Kelly +5.65%
Croissance +0.462%

avec la cote maximale 2.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.30%43.66%44.30%48.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.982.152.122.4550.51%46.47%47.17%40.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -14.00%E -9.09%K -25.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV +8.19%E +3.34%K +5.65%G +0.462%5.8%2026-06-16 09:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -16.24%E -10.82%K -32.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV +5.98%E +2.49%K +4.27%G +0.255%8.3%2026-06-16 09:11
Fliff1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -16.80%E -11.27%K -34.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV +5.98%E +2.49%K +4.27%G +0.255%8.8%2026-06-16 09:10
Unibet (NL)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.54%E -5.89%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.56%E +0.680%K +1.20%G +0.019%5.2%2026-06-16 09:11
Unibet (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.54%E -5.89%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.56%E +0.680%K +1.20%G +0.019%5.2%2026-06-16 09:10
Svenska Spel1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.54%E -5.89%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.56%E +0.680%K +1.20%G +0.019%5.2%2026-06-16 09:10
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.54%E -5.89%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.56%E +0.680%K +1.20%G +0.019%5.2%2026-06-16 09:10
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -10.09%E -6.27%K -16.55%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV +0.680%E +0.298%K +0.531%G +0.004%6.0%2026-06-16 09:10
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -10.65%E -6.66%K -17.75%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV +0.680%E +0.298%K +0.531%G +0.004%6.4%2026-06-16 09:10
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -9.54%E -5.89%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -0.645%E -0.287%K -0.516%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-16 09:10
Betsson1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -10.65%E -6.66%K -17.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -0.645%E -0.287%K -0.516%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-16 09:11
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -10.65%E -6.66%K -17.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -0.645%E -0.287%K -0.516%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-16 09:10
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -10.65%E -6.66%K -17.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -0.645%E -0.287%K -0.516%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-16 09:10
Bally Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -10.65%E -6.66%K -17.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -0.645%E -0.287%K -0.516%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-16 09:10
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -12.89%E -8.26%K -23.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -0.645%E -0.287%K -0.516%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-16 09:10
Betclic (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -12.89%E -8.26%K -23.01%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -1.53%E -0.685%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-16 09:10
BetAnything1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.85%E -1.30%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-16 09:05
FanDuel1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.74%E -4.04%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.85%E -1.30%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 09:10
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.74%E -4.04%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.85%E -1.30%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 09:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.86%E -4.76%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.85%E -1.30%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 09:10
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.54%E -5.89%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.85%E -1.30%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-16 09:10
PMU (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 58.60%EV -14.00%E -9.09%K -25.93%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.40%EV -3.74%E -1.71%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-16 09:10
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.83%E -1.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.06%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-16 08:59
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.95%E -2.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.06%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-16 08:59
Bovada1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.06%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 09:00
Coolbet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.06%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 09:10
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.28%E -1.30%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -5.50%E -2.57%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-16 09:10
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.28%E -1.30%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -5.50%E -2.57%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-16 09:10
Unibet (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.95%E -2.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.50%E -2.57%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-16 09:10
ReBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -3.95%E -2.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.94%E -2.79%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 08:59
Casumo1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.39%E -1.96%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -6.39%E -3.01%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 09:10
Unibet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.39%E -1.96%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -6.39%E -3.01%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 09:10
ATG (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.39%E -1.96%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -6.39%E -3.01%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 09:10
betPARX1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.39%E -1.96%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -6.39%E -3.01%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 09:10
Marathon Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.09%EV -3.95%E -2.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.91%EV -6.83%E -3.24%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-16 08:59
Pinnacle1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%EV +1.07%E +0.594%K +1.33%G +0.014%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-16 09:10
Bet Right1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.83%E -1.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 09:04
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.39%E -1.96%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 09:04
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.95%E -2.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 09:08
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.95%E -2.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 08:59
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.95%E -2.30%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 09:10
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 09:06
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 09:08
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.07%E -2.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-16 09:10
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.07%E -2.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-16 09:10
PointsBet (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.19%E -3.68%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-16 09:10
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.74%E -4.04%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-16 09:10
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.74%E -4.04%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-16 09:10
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.74%E -4.04%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-16 09:10
NetBet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.74%E -4.04%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-16 09:00
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.86%E -4.76%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.27%E -3.46%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-16 08:59
Dabble (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.28%E -1.30%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.15%E -3.92%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-16 09:08
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -6.19%E -3.68%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -9.03%E -4.39%K -8.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-16 09:10
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.28%E -1.30%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -9.48%E -4.62%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-16 09:08
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.28%E -1.30%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -9.48%E -4.62%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-16 09:10
Betr (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.83%E -1.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.48%E -4.62%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-16 09:05
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.07%E -2.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.48%E -4.62%K -9.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-16 09:01
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.07%E -2.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.48%E -4.62%K -9.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-16 09:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.07%E -2.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.48%E -4.62%K -9.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-16 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%EV -6.19%E -3.68%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -9.92%E -4.86%K -9.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-16 09:10
GTbets1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV +1.07%E +0.594%K +1.33%G +0.014%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -11.24%E -5.59%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-16 08:59
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +0.516%E +0.287%K +0.645%G +0.003%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -11.68%E -5.84%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-16 09:06
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.07%E -2.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -11.68%E -5.84%K -11.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-16 09:10
1xBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV +3.31%E +1.79%K +3.89%G +0.129%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -12.57%E -6.35%K -12.82%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-16 08:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%0.8%2026-06-16 09:10
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14%1.1%2026-06-16 09:10
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 60.19%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81%1.3%2026-06-16 09:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%1.8%2026-06-16 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%3.4%2026-06-16 09:11
Novig1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%5.7%2026-06-16 09:10