Language:English
Laura Siegemund v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Laura Siegemund (Local)
Prediction 23.93%4.18fair odd
EV +7.69%
Edge +1.71%
Kelly +2.20%
Growth +0.169%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%23.87%23.72%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.913.904.5028.99%25.55%25.64%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 76.07%1.31fair odd
EV -0.350%
Edge -0.267%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%76.13%76.28%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.241.241.3186.21%80.54%80.65%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Laura Siegemund (Local): 23.93%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 76.07%. For Laura Siegemund (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.69%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +7.69%E +1.71%K +2.20%G +0.169% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +7.69%E +1.71%K +2.20%G +0.169% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -10.24%E -8.68%K -56.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +7.69%E +1.71%K +2.20%G +0.169% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -11.00%E -9.40%K -64.70%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +5.30%E +1.20%K +1.56%G +0.083% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -7.96%E -6.58%K -37.89%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +3.62%E +0.837%K +1.09%G +0.039% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.72%E -7.26%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.06%EV +3.14%E +0.730%K +0.950%G +0.030% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.94%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV +1.71%E +0.402%K +0.526%G +0.009% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -8.72%E -7.26%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -0.685%E -0.165%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.86%EV -10.24%E -8.68%K -56.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.88%E -0.459%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.88%E -0.459%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.88%E -0.459%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.88%E -0.459%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.88%E -0.459%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.88%E -0.459%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.88%E -0.459%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 22.68%EV -2.12%E -0.518%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.32%EV -8.72%E -7.26%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 22.68%EV -2.12%E -0.518%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.32%EV -8.72%E -7.26%K -43.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -4.27%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -10.24%E -8.68%K -56.88%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -5.47%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -6.44%E -5.23%K -27.98%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -5.47%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -6.44%E -5.23%K -27.98%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -5.47%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -6.44%E -5.23%K -27.98%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-26 12:43 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.91%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-26 12:58 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.08%EV -11.76%E -10.14%K -73.50%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV -7.15%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.93%EV -6.44%E -5.23%K -27.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-26 12:58 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.19%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.81%EV -1.11%E -0.855%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.86%E -2.04%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%EV -7.96%E -6.58%K -37.89%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.71%EV -8.10%E -2.11%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.29%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-26 12:43 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -9.06%E -2.38%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.06%E -2.38%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.91%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.06%E -2.38%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.74%EV -9.54%E -2.52%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.26%EV -0.350%E -0.267%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.26%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.91%E -3.93%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -10.26%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.91%EV -9.48%E -7.97%K -49.89%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -10.50%E -2.81%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -2.63%E -2.06%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -11.45%E -3.10%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -1.11%E -0.855%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-26 12:57 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -11.45%E -3.10%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -1.11%E -0.855%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-26 12:56 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -11.45%E -3.10%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.63%E -2.06%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-26 12:56 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -11.45%E -3.10%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -12.65%E -3.47%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-26 12:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -12.65%E -3.47%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-26 12:43 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -12.65%E -3.47%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-26 12:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -12.65%E -3.47%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -1.11%E -0.855%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.87%E -1.45%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 12:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.15%E -3.30%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-26 12:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -5.67%E -4.58%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -16.24%E -4.64%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.11%E -0.855%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -16.24%E -4.64%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.11%E -0.855%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-26 12:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -17.44%E -5.05%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -2.63%E -2.06%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-26 12:56 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 0.3% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |
| Novig◎ | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.14% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86% | 6.6% | 2026-05-26 13:00 |