L’École des cotes

Guo Hanyu v McCartney Kessler

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-25 18:15 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

52 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Guo Hanyu (Local)

Prévision 39.09%2.56cote équitable
EV +33.70%
Avantage +9.85%
Kelly +13.93%
Croissance +4.69%

avec la cote maximale 3.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.00%38.14%38.93%44.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.062.512.333.4248.54%39.90%42.92%29.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

McCartney Kessler (Visiteur)

Prévision 60.91%1.64cote équitable
EV +4.15%
Avantage +2.43%
Kelly +5.84%
Croissance +0.242%

avec la cote maximale 1.71

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.08%61.86%61.07%72.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.331.531.541.7175.19%65.15%64.94%58.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (52 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag3.42I 29.24%NM 28.00%EV +33.70%E +9.85%K +13.93%G +4.69%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.00%EV -19.00%E -14.28%K -57.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-25 17:52
Pinnacle3.32I 30.12%NM 29.21%EV +29.79%E +8.97%K +12.84%G +3.83%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.79%EV -16.56%E -12.09%K -44.75%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-25 17:30
BetOnline.ag3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +29.01%E +8.79%K +12.61%G +3.66%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -17.78%E -13.17%K -50.79%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-25 17:30
PlayUp3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +25.10%E +7.84%K +11.41%G +2.86%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -17.78%E -13.17%K -50.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 17:52
Betr (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV +23.15%E +7.35%K +10.77%G +2.49%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -17.78%E -13.17%K -50.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-25 17:49
Marathon Bet3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV +21.97%E +7.04%K +10.37%G +2.28%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -17.17%E -12.62%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-25 17:40
Everygame3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +21.19%E +6.84%K +10.09%G +2.14%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -17.17%E -12.62%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-25 17:30
William Hill3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +21.19%E +6.84%K +10.09%G +2.14%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -17.17%E -12.62%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-25 17:30
SportsBet3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV +20.41%E +6.63%K +9.81%G +2.00%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -15.95%E -11.56%K -41.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-25 17:17
Bet Right3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +19.24%E +6.31%K +9.38%G +1.81%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -15.95%E -11.56%K -41.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 17:50
Neds3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +19.24%E +6.31%K +9.38%G +1.81%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -15.95%E -11.56%K -41.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 17:30
Ladbrokes (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +19.24%E +6.31%K +9.38%G +1.81%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -15.95%E -11.56%K -41.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 17:30
TABtouch2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +15.33%E +5.20%K +7.86%G +1.20%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -14.73%E -10.52%K -36.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 17:30
BetRivers2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +15.33%E +5.20%K +7.86%G +1.20%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -14.73%E -10.52%K -36.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 17:30
Casumo2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +15.33%E +5.20%K +7.86%G +1.20%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -14.73%E -10.52%K -36.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-25 17:30
Fanatics2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +9.46%E +3.38%K +5.26%G +0.498%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -13.51%E -9.52%K -32.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-25 17:58
Caesars2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +1.65%E +0.633%K +1.03%G +0.017%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-25 17:58
Bovada2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.310%E -0.121%K -0.200%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.21%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-25 17:57
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.26%E -0.906%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-25 18:00
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.26%E -0.906%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 18:00
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.22%E -1.72%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.21%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-25 18:00
TAB2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.22%E -1.72%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-25 17:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.22%E -1.72%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-25 18:00
BetMGM2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.17%E -2.57%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-25 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -7.35%E -3.10%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-25 18:00
NordicBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.13%E -3.46%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-25 18:00
Coolbet2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -9.69%E -4.20%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -1.33%E -0.823%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-25 18:00
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -12.04%E -5.35%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -2.55%E -1.59%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-25 18:00
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -12.04%E -5.35%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -2.55%E -1.59%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-25 18:00
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -12.04%E -5.35%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -2.55%E -1.59%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-25 18:00
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -12.04%E -5.35%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -12.04%E -5.35%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-25 18:00
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -13.99%E -6.36%K -11.66%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -1.33%E -0.823%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-25 17:59
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -13.99%E -6.36%K -11.66%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -1.33%E -0.823%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-25 18:00
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -13.99%E -6.36%K -11.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.55%E -1.59%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-25 18:00
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -13.99%E -6.36%K -11.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.55%E -1.59%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-25 18:00
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -14.77%E -6.78%K -12.52%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -1.94%E -1.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-25 18:00
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -15.95%E -7.42%K -13.87%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV +0.494%E +0.300%K +0.761%G +0.004%7.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Betclic (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -15.95%E -7.42%K -13.87%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -1.33%E -0.823%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-25 18:00
Fliff2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -15.95%E -7.42%K -13.87%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -3.16%E -1.99%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-25 18:00
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +4.15%E +2.43%K +5.84%G +0.242%6.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Unibet (NL)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +4.15%E +2.43%K +5.84%G +0.242%6.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Unibet (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +4.15%E +2.43%K +5.84%G +0.242%6.1%2026-05-25 18:00
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +4.15%E +2.43%K +5.84%G +0.242%6.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Svenska Spel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +4.15%E +2.43%K +5.84%G +0.242%6.1%2026-05-25 18:00
betPARX2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +4.15%E +2.43%K +5.84%G +0.242%6.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +4.15%E +2.43%K +5.84%G +0.242%6.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +1.71%E +1.03%K +2.56%G +0.044%7.5%2026-05-25 17:59
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV +0.494%E +0.300%K +0.761%G +0.004%8.2%2026-05-25 18:00
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -17.90%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -2.55%E -1.59%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Virgin Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -19.47%E -9.45%K -18.36%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV +2.32%E +1.38%K +3.41%G +0.079%8.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Bally Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -19.47%E -9.45%K -18.36%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV +2.32%E +1.38%K +3.41%G +0.079%8.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74%0.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%1.0%2026-05-25 18:00
Smarkets2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%2.1%2026-05-25 18:00
Novig2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%6.0%2026-05-25 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 38.54%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.46%6.3%2026-05-25 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%7.6%2026-05-25 18:00