Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Iga Swiatek v Emiliana Arango

Início: 2026-08-16 16:51 UTC

Final: Iga Swiatek 2–0 Emiliana Arango

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Iga Swiatek (Local)

Previsão 94.51%1.06odd justa
EV -1.71%
Vantagem -1.64%
Kelly -42.72%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
89.64%94.24%94.54%96.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.001.021.011.04100.00%98.52%99.01%96.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Emiliana Arango (Visitante)

Previsão 5.49%18.22odd justa
EV +42.72%
Vantagem +1.64%
Kelly +1.71%
Crescimento +0.730%

pressupondo odds máximas de 26.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
3.74%5.76%5.46%10.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
9.0018.0719.0026.0011.11%5.54%5.26%3.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Iga Swiatek (Local): 94.51%; Emiliana Arango (Visitante): 5.49%. Para Emiliana Arango (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 18.22. 33 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 26.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +42.72%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
BoyleSports🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +42.72%E +1.64%K +1.71%G +0.730%2.9%2026-08-15 21:24
Betway🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +42.72%E +1.64%K +1.71%G +0.730%2.9%2026-08-16 16:45
Bovada🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 95.83%EV -5.49%E -5.49%K +0.000%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +26.25%E +1.14%K +1.19%G +0.313%4.3%2026-08-16 16:39
1xBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.57%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.43%EV +20.76%E +0.944%K +0.989%G +0.205%2.6%2026-08-16 16:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.61%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.39%EV +20.76%E +0.944%K +0.989%G +0.205%3.6%2026-08-16 15:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.61%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.39%EV +20.76%E +0.944%K +0.989%G +0.205%3.6%2026-08-16 15:59
Sky Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 95.32%EV -2.65%E -2.58%K -88.46%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.68%EV +15.27%E +0.727%K +0.764%G +0.117%1.8%2026-08-16 16:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +15.27%E +0.727%K +0.764%G +0.117%2.8%2026-08-16 16:49
betfred_uk🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +15.27%E +0.727%K +0.764%G +0.117%3.8%2026-08-16 16:44
Coral🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +15.27%E +0.727%K +0.764%G +0.117%3.8%2026-08-16 07:44
PlayUp🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +15.27%E +0.727%K +0.764%G +0.117%3.8%2026-08-16 16:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +15.27%E +0.727%K +0.764%G +0.117%3.8%2026-08-16 07:44
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-16 16:15
Unibet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-16 16:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-16 16:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-16 16:50
Casumo🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-16 16:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-16 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-16 16:50
betPARX🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-16 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%4.0%2026-08-16 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +9.79%E +0.489%K +0.515%G +0.050%4.0%2026-08-16 16:49
DraftKings🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 95.06%EV -2.65%E -2.58%K -88.46%G +0.000%19.80I 5.05%NM 4.94%EV +8.69%E +0.439%K +0.462%G +0.040%2.1%2026-08-16 16:44
theScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +4.30%E +0.226%K +0.239%G +0.010%3.3%2026-08-16 07:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +4.30%E +0.226%K +0.239%G +0.010%3.3%2026-08-15 13:29
BetRivers🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +4.30%E +0.226%K +0.239%G +0.010%3.3%2026-08-15 13:29
Bally Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +4.30%E +0.226%K +0.239%G +0.010%3.3%2026-08-15 13:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +4.30%E +0.226%K +0.239%G +0.010%4.3%2026-08-16 07:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +4.30%E +0.226%K +0.239%G +0.010%4.3%2026-08-16 15:59
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +4.30%E +0.226%K +0.239%G +0.010%4.3%2026-08-16 07:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.93%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%18.92I 5.29%NM 5.07%EV +3.86%E +0.204%K +0.215%G +0.008%4.3%2026-08-16 15:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.93%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%18.92I 5.29%NM 5.07%EV +3.86%E +0.204%K +0.215%G +0.008%4.3%2026-08-16 15:59
Pinnacle🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 94.80%EV -2.65%E -2.58%K -88.46%G +0.000%18.78I 5.32%NM 5.20%EV +3.09%E +0.164%K +0.174%G +0.005%2.4%2026-08-16 16:40
Fanatics🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -1.19%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-16 16:15
William Hill🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-16 15:55
888sport🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 15:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 15:55
Coolbet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -6.68%E -0.393%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 15:55
BetMGM🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -12.17%E -0.761%K -0.811%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -12.17%E -0.761%K -0.811%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 15:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:49
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:35
Caesars🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:28
ReBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:49
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.66%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -21.78%E -1.53%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 12:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -28.64%E -2.20%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:39
SportsBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -28.64%E -2.20%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.54%E -4.50%K -454.41%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -28.64%E -2.20%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:47
TAB🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.60%E -3.53%K -179.95%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -39.62%E -3.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 16:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 91.67%EV -5.49%E -5.49%K +0.000%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -39.62%E -3.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 16:49
betano_uk🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -1.71%E -1.64%K -42.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -50.60%E -5.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 16:48
Bet Victor🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -1.71%E -1.64%K -42.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -50.60%E -5.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 16:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-08-16 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-08-16 16:35
Matchbook◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-08-16 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 95.88%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.12%1.3%2026-08-16 16:50
Novig◎1.03I 97.09%NM 95.29%20.83I 4.80%NM 4.71%1.9%2026-08-16 16:50
ProphetX◎1.03I 97.09%NM 95.22%20.50I 4.88%NM 4.78%2.0%2026-08-16 16:50
Smarkets◎1.01I 99.01%NM 95.61%21.98I 4.55%NM 4.39%3.6%2026-08-16 16:50