Language:English
Madison Keys v Belinda Bencic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Madison Keys (Local)
Prediction 46.24%2.16fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%46.31%46.07%48.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1151.28%49.07%48.78%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Belinda Bencic (Visit)
Prediction 53.76%1.86fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.588%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.71%53.69%53.93%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.771.8459.88%56.82%56.66%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Madison Keys (Local): 46.24%; Belinda Bencic (Visit): 53.76%. For Belinda Bencic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.84, with an expected value of -1.08%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -2.43%E -1.15%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -6.46%E -3.71%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.90%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.90%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.38%E -3.06%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.90%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 17:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.90%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.99%E -4.04%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-03 17:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.90%E -1.38%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.22%E -6.12%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -3.36%E -1.61%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%EV -6.46%E -3.71%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -3.36%E -1.61%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%EV -6.46%E -3.71%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.82%E -1.84%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.38%E -3.06%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.82%E -1.84%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.82%E -1.84%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -3.82%E -1.84%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -6.99%E -4.04%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 17:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -4.75%E -2.30%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.38%E -3.06%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.23%E -1.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.84%E -2.74%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.46%E -3.71%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.99%E -4.04%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -7.53%E -4.38%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.21%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.61%E -5.06%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-03 17:23 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.60%E -3.27%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.16%E -1.18%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.60%E -3.27%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.16%E -1.18%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -6.60%E -3.27%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -6.60%E -3.27%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.52%E -3.76%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.23%E -1.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-03 17:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.52%E -3.76%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.23%E -1.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.52%E -3.76%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.23%E -1.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-03 17:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.52%E -3.76%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-03 17:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.52%E -3.76%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.46%E -3.71%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.52%E -3.76%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.99%E -4.04%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -7.52%E -3.76%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -9.15%E -5.41%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -8.45%E -4.27%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.23%E -1.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -8.45%E -4.27%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -9.68%E -5.76%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 17:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -8.91%E -4.52%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -1.08%E -0.588%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.23%E -1.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.23%E -1.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -4.31%E -2.42%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -6.99%E -4.04%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 0.7% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 0.7% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.19I 45.66%NM 45.11% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.89% | 1.2% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.09% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.91% | 1.7% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68% | 2.2% | 2026-04-03 17:31 |