Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alina Korneeva v Polina Kudermetova

Kickoff: 2026-08-03 15:07 UTC

Final: Alina Korneeva 1–0 Polina Kudermetova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

65 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alina Korneeva (Local)

Prediction 65.32%1.53fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.906%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.61%65.21%65.39%66.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.451.5171.43%68.88%68.97%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Polina Kudermetova (Visit)

Prediction 34.68%2.88fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.407%
Kelly -0.627%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.96%34.79%34.61%36.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.712.752.8538.46%36.86%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alina Korneeva (Local): 65.32%; Polina Kudermetova (Visit): 34.68%. For Polina Kudermetova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -1.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%EV -1.37%E -0.906%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -5.67%E -2.08%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-03 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -1.37%E -0.906%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -8.44%E -3.20%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 07:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -1.37%E -0.906%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -8.44%E -3.20%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 07:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.33%E -2.25%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -2.89%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-03 07:44
BetAnything🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.33%E -2.25%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-03 14:55
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.33%E -2.25%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-03 15:01
GTbets🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -3.33%E -2.25%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -7.40%E -2.77%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 21:05
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.33%E -2.25%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.83%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 15:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.33%E -2.25%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.83%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 15:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.33%E -2.25%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.83%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 14:39
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.98%E -2.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.16%E -0.407%K -0.627%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-03 15:04
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.98%E -2.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-03 14:54
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -3.98%E -2.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -8.10%E -3.06%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 15:05
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.63%E -3.17%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -3.94%E -1.42%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-03 15:03
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.63%E -3.17%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 09:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.63%E -3.17%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 07:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.63%E -3.17%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 08:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.63%E -3.17%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 07:45
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.63%E -3.17%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 14:04
Dabble (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.63%E -3.17%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 09:00
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:45
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:44
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:44
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:45
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:45
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:44
Bally Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:44
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 07:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 10:05
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 06:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -4.98%E -1.82%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 15:03
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -4.98%E -1.82%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 14:55
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 14:50
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 07:44
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 07:50
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.89%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 07:44
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.89%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 07:45
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 05:50
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 07:44
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 13:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 07:45
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-03 15:05
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-03 15:04
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-03 07:45
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-03 07:45
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.10%E -3.06%K -4.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-03 15:04
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.14%E -3.49%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 15:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.14%E -3.49%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.14%E -3.49%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 15:05
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.14%E -3.49%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 15:04
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.94%E -4.12%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.14%E -3.49%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 15:05
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.03%EV -7.25%E -5.10%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.97%EV -4.28%E -1.55%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-03 15:05
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.25%E -5.10%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 14:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.25%E -5.10%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-03 14:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.25%E -5.10%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.10%E -3.06%K -4.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-03 07:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -7.25%E -5.10%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -9.83%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-03 15:03
Fliff🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -7.90%E -5.60%K -19.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -9.83%E -3.78%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-03 15:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.55%E -6.11%K -21.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-03 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%0.3%2026-08-03 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%0.3%2026-08-03 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%0.3%2026-08-03 15:05
Novig1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-03 15:05
Matchbook1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86%1.0%2026-08-03 15:05
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 65.59%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.41%2.3%2026-08-03 15:05

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