Language:English
Naomi Osaka v Elise Mertens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Naomi Osaka (Local)
Prediction 52.57%1.90fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.624%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%52.55%52.63%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.801.801.8858.14%55.67%55.56%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elise Mertens (Visit)
Prediction 47.43%2.11fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.24%47.45%47.37%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.992.002.0552.63%50.16%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Naomi Osaka (Local): 52.57%; Elise Mertens (Visit): 47.43%. For Naomi Osaka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.88, with an expected value of -1.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.17%E -0.624%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -3.71%E -1.83%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.75%E -1.49%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.75%E -1.49%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.75%E -1.49%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.75%E -1.49%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.80%E -2.08%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-23 01:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.80%E -2.08%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-23 10:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -4.33%E -2.38%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -2.76%E -1.35%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-23 06:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.33%E -2.38%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.33%E -2.38%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.33%E -2.38%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.33%E -2.38%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -3.24%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -3.24%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-23 04:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -3.24%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-23 04:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-23 06:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.66%E -2.32%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.66%E -2.32%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 02:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 01:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 01:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 04:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 04:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 04:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 04:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-23 03:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 04:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.38%E -2.99%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -9.88%E -5.20%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-23 07:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.19%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.61%E -2.82%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 04:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.61%E -2.82%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 04:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.61%E -2.82%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 06:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.90%E -3.30%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.61%E -2.82%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-23 06:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-23 04:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -6.43%E -3.61%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-23 04:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -7.48%E -4.25%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -7.48%E -4.25%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.01%E -4.58%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-23 02:08 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.01%E -4.58%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-23 04:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.01%E -4.58%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.51%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-23 04:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -8.01%E -4.58%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -8.45%E -4.38%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.97%EV -8.53%E -4.90%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.03%EV -7.03%E -3.59%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-23 03:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.06%E -5.24%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-23 01:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.58%E -5.57%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-23 04:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34% | 1.6% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72% | 1.7% | 2026-06-23 12:30 |