The School of OddsJannik Sinner v Shintaro Mochizuki
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
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Head to Head
Jannik Sinner (Local)
Prediction 94.27%1.06fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -96.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.74%94.14%94.35%96.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.03100%99%99%97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit)
Prediction 5.73%17.46fair odd
EV +48.89%
Edge +1.88%
Kelly +1.96%
Growth +0.956%
assuming max odds 26.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.74%5.86%5.65%9.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
10.0017.8717.6226.0010%6%6%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +48.89%E +1.88%K +1.96%G +0.956% | 2.9% | 2026-07-05 18:12 |
| theScore Bet | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +48.89%E +1.88%K +1.96%G +0.956% | 2.9% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +31.71%E +1.38%K +1.44%G +0.457% | 2.4% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Paddy Power | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +31.71%E +1.38%K +1.44%G +0.457% | 2.4% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +20.25%E +0.965%K +1.01%G +0.205% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +20.25%E +0.965%K +1.01%G +0.205% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| FanDuel | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +20.25%E +0.965%K +1.01%G +0.205% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +20.25%E +0.965%K +1.01%G +0.205% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| 888sport | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.73%E -5.73%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +20.25%E +0.965%K +1.01%G +0.205% | 4.8% | 2026-07-05 18:10 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.73%E -5.73%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +20.25%E +0.965%K +1.01%G +0.205% | 4.8% | 2026-07-05 18:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.73%E -5.73%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +20.25%E +0.965%K +1.01%G +0.205% | 4.8% | 2026-07-05 18:10 |
| Coolbet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 3.0% | 2026-07-05 18:12 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 3.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 3.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Unibet | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Casumo | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Grosvenor | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| BetRivers | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Bally Bet | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| betPARX | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +14.53%E +0.726%K +0.765%G +0.111% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +8.80%E +0.463%K +0.489%G +0.043% | 4.3% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +8.80%E +0.463%K +0.489%G +0.043% | 4.3% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +3.08%E +0.171%K +0.181%G +0.006% | 4.6% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| ReBet | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +3.08%E +0.171%K +0.181%G +0.006% | 4.6% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.36%EV -2.90%E -2.81%K -96.61%G +0.000% | 17.23I 5.80%NM 5.64%EV -1.33%E -0.077%K -0.082%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| betfred_uk | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -2.65%E -0.156%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| William Hill | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -2.65%E -0.156%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| BoyleSports | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -2.65%E -0.156%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Caesars | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -2.65%E -0.156%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -5.73%E -5.73%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV -2.65%E -0.156%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| 1xBet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.14%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 16.40I 6.10%NM 5.86%EV -6.09%E -0.371%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| NordicBet | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -8.38%E -0.524%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Betsson | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -8.38%E -0.524%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Neds | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -8.38%E -0.524%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -8.38%E -0.524%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -8.38%E -0.524%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.88%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.12%EV -11.24%E -0.725%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| BetAnything | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.81%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 15.45I 6.47%NM 6.19%EV -11.53%E -0.746%K -0.798%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Coral | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -2.90%E -2.81%K -96.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -14.10%E -0.940%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -2.90%E -2.81%K -96.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -14.10%E -0.940%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Betway | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -14.10%E -0.940%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Bovada | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -14.10%E -0.940%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-05 18:13 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.10%E -0.940%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.10%E -0.940%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -18.40%E -1.29%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -19.83%E -1.42%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| LeoVegas | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -19.83%E -1.42%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.78%E -4.74%K -478.37%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -19.83%E -1.42%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| DraftKings | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.05%EV -2.90%E -2.81%K -96.61%G +0.000% | 13.80I 7.25%NM 6.95%EV -20.98%E -1.52%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| BetMGM | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -25.56%E -1.97%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Everygame | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -25.56%E -1.97%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Fanatics | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -31.28%E -2.61%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Bet Victor | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -3.84%E -3.77%K -192.05%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -42.74%E -4.27%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-05 18:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.91% | 24.39I 4.10%NM 4.09% | 0.3% | 2026-07-05 18:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67% | 0.8% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67% | 0.8% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67% | 0.8% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Matchbook | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67% | 0.8% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| ProphetX | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |
| Smarkets | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 25.97I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-07-05 18:15 |