L’École des cotes

Hugo Gaston v Stefanos Tsitsipas

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-29 15:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Hugo Gaston (Local)

Prévision 21.68%4.61cote équitable
EV +8.39%
Avantage +1.68%
Kelly +2.10%
Croissance +0.176%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.09%24.32%21.47%36.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.603.814.255.0038.46%26.22%23.53%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visiteur)

Prévision 78.32%1.28cote équitable
EV +18.27%
Avantage +12.10%
Kelly +35.82%
Croissance +6.54%

avec la cote maximale 1.51

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
63.41%75.68%78.53%80.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.151.281.211.5186.96%78.00%82.99%66.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet2.79I 35.84%NM 35.12%EV -39.52%E -14.16%K -22.08%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.88%EV +18.27%E +12.10%K +35.82%G +6.54%2.1%2026-06-29 13:59
Pinnacle2.77I 36.10%NM 35.13%EV -39.95%E -14.42%K -22.57%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.87%EV +17.48%E +11.66%K +34.97%G +6.11%2.8%2026-06-29 14:10
William Hill2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -43.64%E -16.78%K -27.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV +17.48%E +11.66%K +34.97%G +6.11%5.1%2026-06-29 14:10
Hard Rock Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -42.55%E -16.06%K -25.79%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV +15.92%E +10.75%K +33.16%G +5.28%5.3%2026-06-29 14:10
BetRivers2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -42.99%E -16.35%K -26.37%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV +15.92%E +10.75%K +33.16%G +5.28%5.6%2026-06-29 14:10
Unibet (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -39.30%E -14.04%K -21.84%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV +15.13%E +10.30%K +32.20%G +4.87%3.7%2026-06-29 14:19
Codere (IT)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -39.30%E -14.04%K -21.84%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV +15.13%E +10.30%K +32.20%G +4.87%3.7%2026-06-29 14:10
ReBet2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -39.30%E -14.04%K -21.84%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV +15.13%E +10.30%K +32.20%G +4.87%3.7%2026-06-29 14:10
BetAnything2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -40.39%E -14.69%K -23.08%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV +15.13%E +10.30%K +32.20%G +4.87%4.4%2026-06-29 14:29
BetUS2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -40.39%E -14.69%K -23.08%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV +15.13%E +10.30%K +32.20%G +4.87%4.4%2026-06-29 14:30
SportsBet2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%EV -40.60%E -14.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.24%EV +14.35%E +9.83%K +31.20%G +4.48%5.0%2026-06-29 14:10
Marathon Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -41.47%E -15.36%K -24.39%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV +14.35%E +9.83%K +31.20%G +4.48%5.5%2026-06-29 14:33
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -40.39%E -14.69%K -23.08%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV +13.57%E +9.36%K +30.15%G +4.09%5.3%2026-06-29 14:30
Everygame2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -41.47%E -15.36%K -24.39%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV +13.57%E +9.36%K +30.15%G +4.09%6.0%2026-06-29 14:10
Dabble (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -42.55%E -16.06%K -25.79%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV +13.57%E +9.36%K +30.15%G +4.09%6.7%2026-06-29 14:29
Neds2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -39.30%E -14.04%K -21.84%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV +12.78%E +8.88%K +29.06%G +3.71%5.2%2026-06-29 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -39.30%E -14.04%K -21.84%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV +12.78%E +8.88%K +29.06%G +3.71%5.2%2026-06-29 14:25
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -40.39%E -14.69%K -23.08%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +12.78%E +8.88%K +29.06%G +3.71%5.8%2026-06-29 14:25
Betr (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -39.30%E -14.04%K -21.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV +11.22%E +7.90%K +26.71%G +3.00%6.1%2026-06-29 14:27
NetBet (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -39.30%E -14.04%K -21.84%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV +10.43%E +7.40%K +25.45%G +2.66%6.6%2026-06-29 14:29
TAB2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -37.14%E -12.81%K -19.54%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV +8.09%E +5.86%K +21.28%G +1.72%6.9%2026-06-29 14:40
MyBookie.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -31.72%E -10.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV +5.74%E +4.25%K +16.39%G +0.940%5.8%2026-06-29 14:40
FanDuel4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.95%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.66%E -2.98%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 14:40
Bovada4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.45%E -3.64%K -20.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 14:41
Coolbet4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -3.54%E -0.794%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.48%EV -4.45%E -3.64%K -20.21%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-29 14:40
Caesars4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.45%E -3.64%K -20.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:39
Unibet (NL)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.23%E -4.32%K -24.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Casumo4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.23%E -4.32%K -24.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Unibet (SE)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.23%E -4.32%K -24.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
betPARX4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.23%E -4.32%K -24.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Svenska Spel4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.23%E -4.32%K -24.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
ATG (SE)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.23%E -4.32%K -24.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Fanatics4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +1.88%E +0.401%K +0.509%G +0.010%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Unibet (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.284%E -0.062%K -0.079%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 14:39
Unibet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
BoyleSports4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Betway4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:40
888sport4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.14%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 14:40
Mr Green (SE)4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.14%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 14:40
888sport (SE)4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.14%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 14:40
TABtouch4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.87%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-29 14:40
Grosvenor4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.87%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-29 14:40
Paddy Power4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-29 14:40
Sky Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.01%E -5.01%K -30.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-29 14:40
BetMGM4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -6.80%E -5.71%K -35.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-29 14:40
Virgin Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -7.87%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.80%E -5.71%K -35.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-29 14:40
LiveScore Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -7.87%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.80%E -5.71%K -35.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-29 14:40
DraftKings5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +8.39%E +1.68%K +2.10%G +0.176%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -0.284%E -0.062%K -0.079%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-29 14:40
PointsBet (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:40
Bet Victor4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:39
Coral4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:40
theScore Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.45%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:40
Bally Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-29 14:40
NordicBet4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -6.14%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-29 14:40
Betsson4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -6.14%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-29 14:40
PMU (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.95%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-29 14:40
LeoVegas4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.95%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-29 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.95%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.58%E -6.42%K -42.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Fliff4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -5.70%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -8.36%E -7.15%K -49.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-29 14:40
Betclic (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -11.12%E -2.71%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -8.36%E -7.15%K -49.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-29 14:38
Tipico (DE)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV +1.88%E +0.401%K +0.509%G +0.010%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -9.15%E -7.88%K -57.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-29 14:40
Winamax (DE)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -4.62%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.28%EV -9.93%E -8.63%K -66.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-29 14:40
Winamax (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -13.29%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 77.67%EV -9.93%E -8.63%K -66.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-06-29 14:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%0.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Matchbook5.10I 19.61%NM 19.30%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.70%1.6%2026-06-29 14:40
ProphetX5.05I 19.80%NM 19.33%1.21I 82.64%NM 80.67%2.4%2026-06-29 14:40
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%3.7%2026-06-29 14:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%4.2%2026-06-29 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%4.2%2026-06-29 14:41
Novig4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%6.3%2026-06-29 14:40