La escuela de los momios

Hamad Medjedovic v Sebastian Ofner

Inicio: 2026-06-29 12:20 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Hamad Medjedovic (Local)

Predicción 65.72%1.52momio equitativo
EV -2.74%
Ventaja -1.85%
Kelly -5.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.73%65.62%65.63%66.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.391.441.441.4871.94%69.41%69.44%67.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sebastian Ofner (Visitante)

Predicción 34.28%2.92momio equitativo
EV -1.26%
Ventaja -0.438%
Kelly -0.672%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.33%34.38%34.37%36.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.752.752.8838.46%36.38%36.36%34.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74%EV -2.74%E -1.85%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%EV -2.63%E -0.927%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.8%2026-06-29 12:11
Caesars1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.74%E -1.85%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.86%E -4.18%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 12:07
Coolbet1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.40%E -2.31%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -2.29%E -0.804%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.1%2026-06-29 12:10
Unibet (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.40%E -2.31%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.01%E -1.43%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-29 12:10
Winamax (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.40%E -2.31%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.01%E -1.43%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-29 12:10
Codere (IT)1.46I 68.49%NM 66.13%EV -4.05%E -2.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -2.29%E -0.804%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-29 12:04
ReBet1.46I 68.49%NM 66.13%EV -4.05%E -2.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -2.29%E -0.804%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-29 12:04
1xBet1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.05%E -2.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -5.03%E -1.82%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-29 12:10
TAB1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.05%E -2.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -9.15%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-29 12:10
Unibet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.01%E -1.43%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 12:04
Bovada1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.01%E -1.43%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 12:09
BetUS1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.01%E -1.43%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 11:59
MyBookie.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 12:10
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 12:10
PointsBet (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.43%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 12:10
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.43%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 12:10
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.43%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 12:11
Winamax (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.43%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 12:10
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%EV -7.78%E -2.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-29 12:10
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%EV -7.78%E -2.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-29 12:10
Dabble (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.71%E -3.25%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.15%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-29 12:10
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -1.26%E -0.438%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 12:10
BetAnything1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.29%E -0.804%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-29 12:00
FanDuel1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -2.63%E -0.927%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 12:10
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.01%E -1.43%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-29 12:10
Unibet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
TABtouch1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
LeoVegas1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Grosvenor1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Unibet (NL)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
BetRivers1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Casumo1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Unibet (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Betway1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Betr (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:08
Svenska Spel1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
betPARX1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:11
ATG (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Bally Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
LiveScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.43%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-29 12:10
Virgin Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.43%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-29 12:10
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.18%E -3.88%K -6.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-29 12:00
SportsBet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -6.03%E -4.21%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV -2.98%E -1.05%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 12:10
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%EV -6.03%E -4.21%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%EV -3.66%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:10
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.03%E -4.21%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.01%E -1.43%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 12:10
DraftKings1.43I 69.93%NM 66.11%EV -6.03%E -4.21%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.89%EV -4.35%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 12:10
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.03%E -4.21%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.43%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 12:10
GTbets1.43I 69.93%NM 65.12%EV -6.03%E -4.21%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.88%EV -8.46%E -3.17%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-29 11:59
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.68%E -4.71%K -15.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.01%E -1.43%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-29 12:10
NetBet (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 65.86%EV -7.34%E -5.21%K -17.90%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.14%EV -6.75%E -2.48%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-29 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.00%E -5.71%K -19.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.00%E -5.71%K -19.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.72%E -2.08%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-29 12:10
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -8.00%E -5.71%K -19.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -9.15%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-29 12:10
Fliff1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -8.00%E -5.71%K -19.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -9.15%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-29 12:01
Betclic (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 65.16%EV -8.65%E -6.23%K -22.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -10.86%E -4.18%K -6.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-29 12:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-06-29 12:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%0.7%2026-06-29 12:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%0.7%2026-06-29 12:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-06-29 12:10
ProphetX1.48I 67.57%NM 66.52%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.48%1.6%2026-06-29 12:11
Smarkets1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64%2.5%2026-06-29 12:11
Novig1.46I 68.49%NM 66.20%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%3.5%2026-06-29 12:10