Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 14:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

60%

40%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local)

Prediction 60.45%1.65fair odd

EV -2.07%

Edge -1.28%

Kelly -3.34%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.14%60.47%60.55%61.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.581.581.6265.36%63.32%63.29%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visit)

Prediction 39.55%2.53fair odd

EV -0.726%

Edge -0.289%

Kelly -0.481%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.79%39.53%39.45%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.382.382.5144.44%42.09%42.02%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local): 60.45%; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visit): 39.55%. For Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.51, with an expected value of -0.726%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.07%E -1.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -11.01%E -4.89%K -8.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 14:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.68%E -1.66%K -4.39%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-05 14:39
Pinnacle🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.07%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.51I 39.84%NM 38.93%EV -0.726%E -0.289%K -0.481%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-05 14:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -3.10%E -1.26%K -2.14%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-07-05 14:40
Betway🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-05 14:39
Unibet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
BetRivers🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
TABtouch🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
Casumo🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
Grosvenor🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
TAB🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:39
Neds🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
betPARX🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:39
ATG (SE)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
Svenska Spel🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
PlayUp🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-05 14:40
Coolbet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.12%E -0.449%K -0.748%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-07-05 14:39
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.10%E -1.26%K -2.14%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-07-05 14:39
BetAnything🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.10%E -1.26%K -2.14%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
Codere (IT)🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -3.49%E -1.43%K -2.43%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-05 14:40
ReBet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -3.49%E -1.43%K -2.43%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-05 14:40
FanDuel🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-05 14:40
BetUS🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-05 14:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-05 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.40%EV -3.89%E -1.60%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-07-05 14:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -4.68%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-05 14:40
1xBet🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-05 14:39
SportsBet🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%	2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -5.47%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 14:40
Marathon Bet🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-05 14:28
Virgin Bet🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -8.24%E -3.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-05 14:40
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-05 14:40
Fanatics🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.10%E -1.26%K -2.14%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-05 14:40
DraftKings🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.68%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-05 14:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-05 14:40
betfred_uk🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 14:39
888sport🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
William Hill🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
Sky Bet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
BoyleSports🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 14:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
Everygame🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 14:34
BetMGM🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 14:40
PMU (FR)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -8.24%E -3.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-05 14:40
Betr (AU)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-05 14:40
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-05 14:40
Betsson🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.31%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -6.26%E -2.64%K -4.57%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-05 14:40
NordicBet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.31%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -6.26%E -2.64%K -4.57%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-05 14:40
Fliff🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -9.82%E -4.31%K -7.67%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-05 14:40
GTbets🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -4.68%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-05 14:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 14:40
LeoVegas🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 14:40
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 14:40
Coral🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-05 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-05 14:40
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -6.91%E -4.49%K -12.79%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -3.89%E -1.60%K -2.72%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-05 14:39
Caesars🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.18%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-05 14:39
Bet Victor🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.18%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-05 14:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%	2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%	0.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%	2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%	0.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
Matchbook◎	1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%	2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%	0.7%	2026-07-05 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%	2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%	1.0%	2026-07-05 14:40
ProphetX◎	1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%	2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13%	1.4%	2026-07-05 14:40
Novig◎	1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%	2.3%	2026-07-05 14:40
Smarkets◎	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%	2.5%	2026-07-05 14:40