La escuela de los momios

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Inicio: 2026-07-05 14:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local)

Predicción 60.45%1.65momio equitativo
EV -2.07%
Ventaja -1.28%
Kelly -3.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.14%60.47%60.55%61.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.531.581.581.6265.36%63.32%63.29%61.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visitante)

Predicción 39.55%2.53momio equitativo
EV -0.726%
Ventaja -0.289%
Kelly -0.481%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.79%39.53%39.45%41.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.382.382.5144.44%42.09%42.02%39.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.07%E -1.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -11.01%E -4.89%K -8.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 14:40
Hard Rock Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.68%E -1.66%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 14:39
Pinnacle1.60I 62.50%NM 61.07%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.93%EV -0.726%E -0.289%K -0.481%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-05 14:40
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -3.10%E -1.26%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-05 14:40
Betway1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-05 14:39
Unibet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
Unibet (NL)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
TABtouch1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
Unibet (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
Grosvenor1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
TAB1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:39
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:39
ATG (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
Svenska Spel1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
Bally Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 14:40
Coolbet1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.12%E -0.449%K -0.748%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-05 14:39
Unibet (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.10%E -1.26%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-05 14:39
BetAnything1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.10%E -1.26%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-05 14:40
Codere (IT)1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -3.49%E -1.43%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 14:40
ReBet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -3.49%E -1.43%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 14:40
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 14:40
BetUS1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 14:39
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.89%E -2.44%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 14:40
Unibet (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.40%EV -3.89%E -1.60%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-05 14:40
MyBookie.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -4.68%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 14:40
1xBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 14:39
SportsBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -5.47%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 14:40
Marathon Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 14:28
Virgin Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -8.24%E -3.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 14:40
Dabble (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.49%E -2.84%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-05 14:40
Fanatics1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.10%E -1.26%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 14:40
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.68%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 14:40
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 14:40
betfred_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 14:39
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 14:40
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 14:40
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 14:40
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 14:39
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 14:40
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 14:40
Everygame1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 14:34
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 14:40
PMU (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -5.10%E -3.25%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -8.24%E -3.55%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-05 14:40
Betr (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:40
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:40
Betsson1.56I 64.10%NM 60.31%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -6.26%E -2.64%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 14:40
NordicBet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.31%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -6.26%E -2.64%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 14:40
Fliff1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.05%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 14:40
LiveScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -9.82%E -4.31%K -7.67%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 14:40
GTbets1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -4.68%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 14:35
PointsBet (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 14:40
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 14:40
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 14:40
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 14:40
Betclic (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -6.91%E -4.49%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -3.89%E -1.60%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 14:39
Caesars1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 14:39
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.03%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-05 14:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-07-05 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-07-05 14:40
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-07-05 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-07-05 14:40
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13%1.4%2026-07-05 14:40
Novig1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%2.3%2026-07-05 14:40
Smarkets1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%2.5%2026-07-05 14:40