La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Daniil Medvedev
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Predicción 19.42%5.15momio equitativo
EV +191.32%
Ventaja +12.75%
Kelly +13.67%
Crecimiento +26.15%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 15.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.37%19.46%19.09%26.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.505.084.5015.0028.57%19.69%22.22%6.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Daniil Medvedev (Visitante)
Predicción 80.58%1.24momio equitativo
EV +3.14%
Ventaja +2.45%
Kelly +11.22%
Crecimiento +0.352%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.28
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.22%80.54%80.91%93.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.021.171.181.2898.04%85.24%84.75%78.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +191.32%E +12.75%K +13.67%G +26.15% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -17.81%E -17.46%K -890.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-01 13:40 |
| William Hill | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +191.32%E +12.75%K +13.67%G +26.15% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -17.81%E -17.46%K -890.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-01 13:30 |
| BoyleSports | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +55.37%E +6.92%K +7.91%G +4.38% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -11.36%E -10.33%K -113.64%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-01 13:49 |
| Bovada | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +16.53%E +2.75%K +3.31%G +0.546% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -8.95%E -7.92%K -68.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 13:40 |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +11.67%E +2.03%K +2.46%G +0.287% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -8.14%E -7.14%K -58.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 13:49 |
| Pinnacle | 5.72I 17.48%NM 16.74%EV +11.09%E +1.94%K +2.35%G +0.261% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.26%EV -7.33%E -6.38%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-01 13:40 |
| Betway | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +6.82%E +1.24%K +1.52%G +0.103% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.33%E -6.38%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 13:49 |
| LeoVegas | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -0.950%E -0.186%K -0.232%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.53%E -5.63%K -40.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| DraftKings | 5.04I 19.84%NM 18.97%EV -2.12%E -0.420%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.03%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.32%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 13:49 |
| Betsson | 5.04I 19.84%NM 18.31%EV -2.12%E -0.420%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.69%EV -8.95%E -7.92%K -68.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Fanatics | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.32%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Bet Victor | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.33%E -6.38%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 13:48 |
| theScore Bet | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.33%E -6.38%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Caesars | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.14%E -7.14%K -58.15%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 13:47 |
| FanDuel | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.83%E -0.987%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -7.75%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.33%E -6.38%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -7.75%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.33%E -6.38%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.52%EV -8.72%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.48%EV -8.14%E -7.14%K -58.15%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-01 13:48 |
| PMU (FR) | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -8.72%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.62%EV -8.95%E -7.92%K -68.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.72%E -4.89%K -33.67%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Sky Bet | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.72%E -4.89%K -33.67%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 13:49 |
| 888sport | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.72%E -4.89%K -33.67%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -14.55%E -3.31%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.50%E -2.07%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Casumo | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.52%E -3.57%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.50%E -2.07%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.52%E -3.57%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.50%E -2.07%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Unibet | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.52%E -3.57%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.50%E -2.07%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.52%E -3.57%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.50%E -2.07%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.52%E -3.57%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.50%E -2.07%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| betPARX | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -15.52%E -3.57%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -2.50%E -2.07%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| TABtouch | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -15.52%E -3.57%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Grosvenor | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -15.52%E -3.57%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -15.90%E -3.67%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -3.31%E -2.75%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -15.90%E -3.67%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -3.31%E -2.75%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -16.49%E -3.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Bally Bet | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -16.49%E -3.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -17.46%E -4.11%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -3.31%E -2.75%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%EV -18.43%E -4.39%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -5.72%E -4.89%K -33.67%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -18.43%E -4.39%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -6.53%E -5.63%K -40.81%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -18.43%E -4.39%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -8.95%E -7.92%K -68.82%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Fliff | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -20.37%E -4.97%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Tipico (DE) | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -22.31%E -5.58%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -1.69%E -1.39%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| BetMGM | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -26.20%E -6.89%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -0.083%E -0.067%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Paddy Power | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -27.17%E -7.25%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -1.69%E -1.39%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| TAB | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -30.08%E -8.36%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV +1.53%E +1.21%K +5.88%G +0.090% | 7.1% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Coral | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -32.02%E -9.15%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV +3.14%E +2.45%K +11.22%G +0.352% | 6.7% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.56% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.44% | 0.3% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Smarkets | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 0.6% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 1.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Matchbook | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.07% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.93% | 1.7% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| ProphetX | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |
| Novig | 4.26I 23.47%NM 21.69% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.31% | 8.2% | 2026-07-01 13:50 |