Language:English
Aleksandar Vukic v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aleksandar Vukic (Local)
Prediction 31.04%3.22fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.703%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.00%31.12%31.15%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.983.003.1535.71%33.55%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 68.96%1.45fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%68.88%68.85%70.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.391.381.4274.63%72.16%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Vukic (Local): 31.04%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 68.96%. For Lorenzo Musetti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.42, with an expected value of -2.08%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92%EV -2.21%E -0.703%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-07-29 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -2.21%E -0.703%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -4.15%E -2.99%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-29 07:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.21%E -0.703%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-29 16:58 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.21%E -0.703%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-29 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.21%E -0.703%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-29 14:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.21%E -0.703%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.91%E -5.12%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 07:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.44%EV -2.84%E -0.906%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.56%EV -5.53%E -4.04%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-29 03:14 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.77%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-29 16:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.77%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-29 02:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.77%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-29 03:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -3.77%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.53%E -4.04%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 10:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.77%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.91%E -5.12%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.77%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.91%E -5.12%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-29 14:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.77%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.91%E -5.12%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-29 14:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.32%E -1.74%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 12:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.32%E -1.74%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 21:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.32%E -1.74%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.53%E -4.04%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 07:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.32%E -1.74%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.53%E -4.04%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 07:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.32%E -1.74%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.53%E -4.04%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 07:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -5.32%E -1.74%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -7.60%E -5.67%K -22.35%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 14:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -6.25%E -2.07%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 16:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-29 15:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-29 04:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 05:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-28 14:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-28 21:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 16:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 16:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 16:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.87%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-28 12:08 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -8.42%E -2.86%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.15%E -2.99%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 09:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.42%E -2.86%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.42%E -2.86%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.08%E -1.47%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 15:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.77%E -1.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 14:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.98%E -3.44%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-28 09:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -10.60%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 09:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -10.60%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -10.60%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.60%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-28 21:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.60%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-28 21:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.60%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-29 16:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.60%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.22%E -4.57%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-29 16:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -11.53%E -4.04%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.08%E -1.47%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 15:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -11.53%E -4.04%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -4.84%E -3.51%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-29 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -13.08%E -4.67%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -2.08%E -1.47%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 15:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -13.08%E -4.67%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 15:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.89% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.11% | 0.5% | 2026-07-29 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-07-29 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-07-29 16:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74% | 1.7% | 2026-07-29 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89% | 2.2% | 2026-07-29 16:35 |
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