Language:English
Alejandro Tabilo v Ben Shelton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Tabilo (Local)
Prediction 26.40%3.79fair odd
EV +5.60%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.87%
Growth +0.104%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.46%26.30%26.50%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.593.604.0030.77%27.83%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ben Shelton (Visit)
Prediction 73.60%1.36fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -8.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.59%73.70%73.50%76.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.281.291.3281.97%77.97%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Tabilo (Local): 26.40%; Ben Shelton (Visit): 73.60%. For Alejandro Tabilo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +5.60%E +1.40%K +1.87%G +0.104% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -7.26%E -5.76%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 01:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.46%EV +5.07%E +1.27%K +1.70%G +0.086% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.54%EV -10.21%E -8.37%K -46.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +2.96%E +0.759%K +1.02%G +0.030% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.26%E -5.76%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 01:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +0.318%E +0.084%K +0.114%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-31 23:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +0.318%E +0.084%K +0.114%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-31 23:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV +0.318%E +0.084%K +0.114%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.79%E -4.52%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.00%E -0.267%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-31 22:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -1.00%E -0.267%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.21%E -8.37%K -46.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -1.00%E -0.267%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.21%E -8.37%K -46.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -1.27%E -0.338%K -0.462%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -5.79%E -4.52%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 01:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.65%EV -2.06%E -0.555%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.35%EV -5.79%E -4.52%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -2.32%E -0.627%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.53%E -5.14%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 20:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -2.32%E -0.627%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.00%E -6.40%K -32.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-31 20:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -2.32%E -0.627%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.00%E -6.40%K -32.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-31 20:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -3.64%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -2.85%E -2.16%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.64%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 00:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -3.64%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -7.26%E -5.76%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.58%E -2.74%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 00:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.32%E -3.32%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.32%E -3.32%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-31 23:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -7.26%E -5.76%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-01 00:10 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.32%E -3.32%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.32%E -3.32%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.32%E -3.32%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 00:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 01:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-31 21:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 01:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 01:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.79%E -4.52%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-01 01:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.53%E -5.14%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-31 23:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.53%E -5.14%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.53%E -5.14%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-01 01:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -8.92%E -2.59%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.32%E -3.32%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -8.92%E -2.59%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.79%E -4.52%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-31 20:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -8.92%E -2.59%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.79%E -4.52%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-31 21:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -8.92%E -2.59%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.79%E -4.52%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.24%E -3.01%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-31 09:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -14.20%E -4.37%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-01 00:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -14.20%E -4.37%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.06%E -3.92%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-01 00:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 0.1% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 01:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 1.3% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| Novig◎ | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.76% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.24% | 3.0% | 2026-08-01 01:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 01:00 |
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