Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Mariano Navone

2026-09-04 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local)

Prediction 47.20%2.12fair odd
EV +1.49%
Edge +0.693%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%47.20%47.25%49.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.992.002.1554.95%50.22%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mariano Navone (Visit)

Prediction 52.80%1.89fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.968%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.79%52.80%52.75%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.791.801.8658.14%55.83%55.56%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local): 47.20%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 52.80%. For Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.15, producing a positive expected value of +1.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV +1.49%E +0.693%K +1.30%G +0.019%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -8.66%E -5.01%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 05:10
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -3.23%E -1.58%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV -2.86%E -1.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 05:45
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.23%E -1.58%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 04:15
SportsBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -8.14%E -4.68%K -11.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 04:00
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.27%EV -4.17%E -2.06%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.73%EV -3.91%E -2.15%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 05:35
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -4.65%E -2.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 05:25
GTbets🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -5.12%E -2.55%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 04:30
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 05:17
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:15
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:15
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:15
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 05:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 05:30
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 04:00
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 04:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 05:20
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 05:25
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 06:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.23%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.50%E -3.07%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 04:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -6.02%E -3.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 04:35
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 04:00
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 04:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.59%E -2.80%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 06:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -6.06%E -3.05%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.50%E -3.07%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 05:30
DraftKings🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -6.53%E -3.30%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -4.44%E -2.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 04:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -6.53%E -3.30%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.94%EV -7.08%E -4.02%K -9.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 04:04
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.95%E -4.08%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 04:30
Fliff🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.95%E -4.08%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 05:15
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.95%E -4.08%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.61%E -4.35%K -10.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 04:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -8.42%E -4.34%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 05:14
ReBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.27%EV -8.89%E -4.61%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.73%EV -8.66%E -5.01%K -11.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 04:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -9.37%E -4.88%K -10.18%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -1.80%E -0.968%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 05:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%EV -9.37%E -4.88%K -10.18%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.75%EV -9.19%E -5.34%K -12.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 04:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%EV -9.37%E -4.88%K -10.18%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.75%EV -9.19%E -5.34%K -12.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 04:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.16%EV -14.09%E -7.74%K -17.18%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.84%EV -7.08%E -4.02%K -9.32%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 05:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%5.1%2026-09-03 07:30
Matchbook1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%8.2%2026-09-03 07:20
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 47.34%1.69I 59.17%NM 52.66%12.4%2026-09-03 04:00
Novig1.83I 54.64%NM 47.41%1.65I 60.61%NM 52.59%15.3%2026-09-03 05:35