Language:English
Toby Samuel v Tomas Machac
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toby Samuel (Local)
Prediction 60.08%1.66fair odd
EV +3.93%
Edge +2.27%
Kelly +5.39%
Growth +0.212%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%59.65%60.10%62.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.601.601.7365.79%62.47%62.50%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tomas Machac (Visit)
Prediction 39.92%2.50fair odd
EV +0.604%
Edge +0.240%
Kelly +0.398%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.72%40.35%39.90%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.342.352.5247.62%42.71%42.55%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toby Samuel (Local): 60.08%; Tomas Machac (Visit): 39.92%. For Toby Samuel (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +3.93%E +2.27%K +5.39%G +0.212% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -16.16%E -7.70%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 08:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.17%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.17%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.17%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.17%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -14.17%E -6.59%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-29 04:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 17:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -2.07%E -1.27%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -6.58%E -2.81%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-30 18:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.60%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.40%EV -4.59%E -1.92%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -7.78%E -3.37%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 17:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -7.78%E -3.37%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 18:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -12.97%E -5.95%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 17:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 17:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -7.38%E -3.18%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.18%E -3.56%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 18:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.18%E -3.56%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-30 18:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.08%E -3.21%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 17:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.08%E -3.21%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 19:03 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 19:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.98%E -2.09%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.28%E -4.02%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 18:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 18:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 17:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -7.48%E -4.86%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV +0.604%E +0.240%K +0.398%G +0.002% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 17:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.48%E -4.86%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 18:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 18:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.28%EV -8.68%E -5.71%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.72%EV +0.205%E +0.082%K +0.136%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-30 19:06 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-30 19:06 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 19:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.82% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 39.18% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 19:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.31% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.69% | 2.6% | 2026-08-30 19:06 |