Idioma:Español
Toby Samuel v Tomas Machac
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Toby Samuel (Local)
Predicción 60.08%1.66momio equitativo
EV +3.93%
Ventaja +2.27%
Kelly +5.39%
Crecimiento +0.212%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.83%59.65%60.10%62.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.601.601.7365.79%62.47%62.50%57.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Tomas Machac (Visitante)
Predicción 39.92%2.50momio equitativo
EV +0.604%
Ventaja +0.240%
Kelly +0.398%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.52
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.72%40.35%39.90%45.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.342.352.5247.62%42.71%42.55%39.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Toby Samuel (Local): 60.08%; Tomas Machac (Visitante): 39.92%. Para Toby Samuel (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.66. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.73, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.93%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +3.93%E +2.27%K +5.39%G +0.212% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -16.16%E -7.70%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 08:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.17%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.17%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.17%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.17%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV +0.330%E +0.197%K +0.492%G +0.002% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -14.17%E -6.59%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-29 04:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 17:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -0.872%E -0.528%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.97%E -4.92%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -2.07%E -1.27%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -6.58%E -2.81%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-30 18:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.60%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.40%EV -4.59%E -1.92%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -7.78%E -3.37%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 17:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -2.67%E -1.65%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -7.78%E -3.37%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 18:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -12.97%E -5.95%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 17:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 17:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -7.38%E -3.18%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.18%E -3.56%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 18:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.18%E -3.56%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-30 18:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.08%E -3.21%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 17:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.08%E -3.21%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 19:03 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 19:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.98%E -2.09%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.28%E -4.02%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.18%E -2.63%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 18:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 18:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 17:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -7.48%E -4.86%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV +0.604%E +0.240%K +0.398%G +0.002% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 17:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.48%E -4.86%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.194%E -0.078%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 18:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 18:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.28%EV -8.68%E -5.71%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.72%EV +0.205%E +0.082%K +0.136%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-30 19:06 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-30 19:06 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 19:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 19:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.82% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 39.18% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 19:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.31% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.69% | 2.6% | 2026-08-30 19:06 |