Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nuno Borges v Learner Tien

Início: 2026-08-31 22:49 UTC

Final: Nuno Borges 0–3 Learner Tien

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

59 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nuno Borges (Local)

Previsão 35.34%2.83odd justa
EV -1.04%
Vantagem -0.372%
Kelly -0.579%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
33.65%35.38%35.33%37.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.552.682.702.8039.22%37.35%37.04%35.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Learner Tien (Visitante)

Previsão 64.66%1.55odd justa
EV -3.01%
Vantagem -2.01%
Kelly -6.03%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
62.96%64.62%64.67%66.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.421.471.471.5070.42%68.08%68.03%66.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Nuno Borges (Local): 35.34%; Learner Tien (Visitante): 64.66%. Para Nuno Borges (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.83. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.80, com valor esperado de -1.04%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (59 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.04%E -0.372%K -0.579%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-31 22:39
BetAnything🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.04%E -0.372%K -0.579%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-31 22:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -1.04%E -0.372%K -0.579%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.19%E -5.76%K -19.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-31 22:25
Pinnacle🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 35.13%EV -2.10%E -0.759%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.87%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-31 22:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -2.81%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-31 22:25
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -2.81%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-31 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.81%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.66%E -2.46%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-31 22:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.81%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.66%E -2.46%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-31 22:45
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.81%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 22:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.81%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 22:39
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.81%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 22:25
ReBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV -4.22%E -1.56%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -3.66%E -2.46%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-31 22:45
DraftKings🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.86%EV -4.22%E -1.56%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.14%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 22:45
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-31 22:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 22:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 22:25
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.60%E -3.84%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 10:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.60%E -3.84%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 10:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.60%E -3.84%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 10:35
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 10:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 22:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -5.28%E -1.97%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-31 22:30
GTbets🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -5.64%E -2.11%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 21:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.88%EV -5.64%E -2.11%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.12%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 22:40
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.34%E -2.39%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 22:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.34%E -2.39%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 22:45
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.34%E -2.39%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:00
TAB🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -6.34%E -2.39%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.60%E -3.84%K -12.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 22:20
Caesars🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.34%E -2.39%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 17:59
FanDuel🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -6.70%E -2.54%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-31 19:10
SportsBet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -6.70%E -2.54%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -3.66%E -2.46%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 19:08
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.05%E -2.68%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-31 19:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -7.05%E -2.68%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 17:20
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.40%E -2.83%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 22:40
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.40%E -2.83%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 19:10
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.40%E -2.83%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 22:45
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.11%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-31 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.11%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 22:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.11%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 13:45
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.11%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 13:45
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.11%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 13:45
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.11%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 22:45
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.11%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 22:45
Fliff🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.11%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.25%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 22:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.88%E -3.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 13:45
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.88%E -3.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 13:44
Fanatics🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -9.88%E -3.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 22:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%0.4%2026-08-31 22:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%0.4%2026-08-31 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%0.4%2026-08-31 22:40
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%0.9%2026-08-31 22:45
ProphetX◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%0.9%2026-08-31 22:45
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97%1.6%2026-08-31 22:45
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%2.0%2026-08-31 22:40
Novig◎2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36%2.5%2026-08-31 22:45