Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v James Duckworth
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 60.18%1.66fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -4.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.09%60.25%60.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6265.36%63.45%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
James Duckworth (Visit)
Prediction 39.82%2.51fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.999%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.09%39.91%39.75%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.392.4544.44%42.07%41.84%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 60.18%; James Duckworth (Visit): 39.82%. For James Duckworth (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -2.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-31 14:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.41%E -4.63%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 13:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.45%E -0.999%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-31 07:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.45%E -0.999%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-31 16:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-30 09:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-30 09:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 07:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 07:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -3.64%E -1.50%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 15:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-29 17:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-29 22:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 21:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 21:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 16:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 02:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 02:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -8.02%E -3.47%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 19:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.42%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 16:43 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.42%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-29 23:42 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -3.64%E -1.50%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-31 13:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 16:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -4.84%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 14:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-31 07:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 16:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.04%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 13:18 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 05:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 11:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -4.84%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 16:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 16:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 16:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 16:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-29 15:06 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-29 18:56 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 16:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 07:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 16:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 02:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.03%E -2.56%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 14:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.03%E -2.56%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 14:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -4.04%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 16:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-29 06:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.42%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 02:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.42%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 02:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.32%E -4.75%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-29 13:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.92%E -5.18%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-31 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-31 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-31 17:01 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-08-31 17:01 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-08-31 17:01 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.82% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 39.18% | 0.9% | 2026-08-31 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-08-31 06:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65% | 1.9% | 2026-08-31 17:01 |