StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Matteo Arnaldi v James Duckworth

Matchstart: 2026-08-31 17:07 UTC

Slutresultat: Matteo Arnaldi 1–3 James Duckworth

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

64 spelbolag (21 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Matteo Arnaldi (Hemma)

Prognos 60.18%1.66rättvist odds
EV -2.50%
Fördel -1.55%
Kelly -4.04%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.62

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
58.14%60.09%60.25%60.91%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.531.581.571.6265.36%63.45%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

James Duckworth (Borta)

Prognos 39.82%2.51rättvist odds
EV -2.45%
Fördel -0.999%
Kelly -1.69%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.45

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
39.09%39.91%39.75%41.86%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.252.382.392.4544.44%42.07%41.84%40.82%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Matteo Arnaldi (Hemma): 60.18%; James Duckworth (Borta): 39.82%. För James Duckworth (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 2.51. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 2.45, med väntevärdet -2.45%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (64 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaMarginalUppdaterat
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-31 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.41%E -4.63%K -8.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 13:20
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.45%E -0.999%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-31 07:35
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.45%E -0.999%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-31 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 09:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 09:45
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-31 07:39
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-31 07:40
ReBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -3.64%E -1.50%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-31 15:10
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 17:05
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 22:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 21:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 21:05
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-31 16:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 02:45
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 02:45
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -8.02%E -3.47%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 19:24
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.42%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 16:43
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.42%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 23:42
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -3.64%E -1.50%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 13:20
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 16:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -4.84%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-31 14:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 07:00
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 16:05
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.04%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 13:18
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 11:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 11:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 11:05
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 05:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 11:04
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -4.84%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 16:45
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 16:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 16:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 16:05
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 16:30
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 15:06
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 18:56
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 16:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 07:35
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 16:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 16:10
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.51%E -3.51%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 02:45
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 11:05
Betsson🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.03%E -2.56%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 14:35
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.03%E -2.56%K -4.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 14:40
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 11:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -4.04%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 06:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.42%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 02:45
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.72%E -4.33%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.42%E -3.66%K -6.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 02:45
GTbets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.32%E -4.75%K -13.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.44%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.92%E -5.18%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.43%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 11:05
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (8)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-08-31 17:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-08-31 17:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-08-31 17:01
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-08-31 17:01
ProphetX◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-08-31 17:01
Novig◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.82%2.53I 39.53%NM 39.18%0.9%2026-08-31 16:55
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-08-31 06:15
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65%1.9%2026-08-31 17:01