Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jakub Mensik v Jurij Rodionov

2026-09-02 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jakub Mensik (Local)

Predicción 84.86%1.18momio equitativo
EV -3.26%
Ventaja -2.86%
Kelly -23.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
82.39%85.08%84.80%89.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.071.111.101.1493.46%90.47%90.91%87.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jurij Rodionov (Visitante)

Predicción 15.14%6.60momio equitativo
EV +36.29%
Ventaja +4.03%
Kelly +4.54%
Crecimiento +1.65%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.71%14.92%15.20%17.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.106.536.509.0019.61%15.32%15.38%11.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jakub Mensik (Local): 84.86%; Jurij Rodionov (Visitante): 15.14%. Para Jurij Rodionov (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.60. 20 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 9.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +36.29%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BoyleSports🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.44%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV +36.29%E +4.03%K +4.54%G +1.65%3.7%2026-09-01 05:34
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 86.10%EV -4.11%E -3.64%K -31.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%2.8%2026-09-01 06:45
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:10
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:09
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:10
Casumo🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:09
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:09
betPARX🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:10
Bally Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:09
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.01%E +0.858%K +1.00%G +0.060%5.2%2026-09-01 06:50
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.81%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV +4.49%E +0.651%K +0.761%G +0.034%4.6%2026-09-01 06:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.32%EV -9.20%E -8.60%K -131.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV +2.22%E +0.329%K +0.386%G +0.009%8.3%2026-09-01 06:10
1xBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.49%EV -4.96%E -4.43%K -41.34%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.51%EV -0.051%E -0.008%K -0.009%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-01 06:15
GTbets🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.23%EV -4.11%E -3.64%K -31.63%G +0.000%6.52I 15.34%NM 14.77%EV -1.26%E -0.194%K -0.229%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-01 06:10
betano_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.96%E -4.43%K -41.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.57%E -0.241%K -0.285%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 06:13
betfred_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.57%E -0.241%K -0.285%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 05:10
SportsBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -7.51%E -6.89%K -83.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -1.57%E -0.241%K -0.285%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 06:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.12%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.81%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.88%EV -3.84%E -0.604%K -0.717%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 06:00
Fanatics🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.96%E -4.43%K -41.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -5.35%E -0.856%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 06:00
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.96%E -4.43%K -41.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -5.35%E -0.856%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 05:32
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -5.35%E -0.856%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 05:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -5.35%E -0.856%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 06:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -5.35%E -0.856%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 06:10
Fliff🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -5.35%E -0.856%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 06:45
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.78%EV -4.96%E -4.43%K -41.34%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 15.22%EV -5.50%E -0.882%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 05:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.81%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -6.11%E -0.985%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 06:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.81%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -6.11%E -0.985%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 06:50
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.96%E -4.43%K -41.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.14%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 06:45
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.96%E -4.43%K -41.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.14%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 05:30
theScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -9.14%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-01 05:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -9.14%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 04:54
LeoVegas🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -10.65%E -1.81%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 06:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -12.17%E -2.10%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-01 06:29
PlayUp🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.26%E -2.86%K -23.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.71%E -3.04%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 05:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.81%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.58%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -19.74%E -3.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 06:00
ReBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.94%EV -7.51%E -6.89%K -83.41%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -19.74%E -3.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-01 06:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.39%EV -7.51%E -6.89%K -83.41%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -22.77%E -4.46%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-01 05:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91%0.7%2026-09-01 04:30
ProphetX1.12I 89.29%NM 86.54%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.46%3.2%2026-09-01 06:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%5.7%2026-09-01 06:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%5.7%2026-09-01 06:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%5.7%2026-09-01 06:35
Matchbook1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%5.7%2026-09-01 06:35
Novig1.09I 91.74%NM 85.15%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-09-01 06:15
Smarkets1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%8.4%2026-09-01 06:35
Arbitraje (3 combinaciones) +1.18%PlayUp 1.14 (88.8%) / BoyleSports 9.00 (11.2%)Ver las 3 combinaciones
Jakub Mensik (Local)Jurij Rodionov (Visitante)Margen
PlayUp🎯 1.14 (88.8%)BoyleSports🎯 9.00 (11.2%)+1.18%
Coolbet🎯 1.13 (88.8%)BoyleSports🎯 9.00 (11.2%)+0.395%
GTbets🎯 1.13 (88.8%)BoyleSports🎯 9.00 (11.2%)+0.395%