Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Ben Shelton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 27.92%3.58fair odd
EV -0.901%
Edge -0.254%
Kelly -0.353%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.06%28.11%27.85%30.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.313.353.5532.79%30.17%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ben Shelton (Visit)
Prediction 72.08%1.39fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.908%
Kelly -3.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.63%71.89%72.15%72.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.331.3778.13%75.30%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 27.92%; Ben Shelton (Visit): 72.08%. For Frances Tiafoe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -0.901%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV -0.901%E -0.254%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60%EV -3.41%E -2.54%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-09 16:11 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -0.901%E -0.254%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -2.30%E -0.656%K -0.919%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -3.41%E -2.54%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-09 15:21 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -2.30%E -0.656%K -0.919%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 17:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -2.30%E -0.656%K -0.919%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.57%E -4.25%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 14:06 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.30%E -0.656%K -0.919%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 14:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -3.69%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 08:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -3.69%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 08:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -3.69%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -3.69%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -3.69%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -3.69%E -1.07%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -7.73%E -6.04%K -27.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.88%EV -3.97%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.12%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.79%EV -4.25%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 17:06 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -4.53%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.21%EV -4.81%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.79%EV -3.41%E -2.54%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-09 08:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-09 15:21 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-09 14:06 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-09 14:06 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 14:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 15:26 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.01%E -5.43%K -24.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 12:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -7.73%E -6.04%K -27.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 14:06 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -5.09%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -7.73%E -6.04%K -27.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 14:06 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.48%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.48%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -6.48%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.57%E -4.25%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -6.48%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.57%E -4.25%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -6.48%E -1.94%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.57%E -4.25%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.88%E -2.39%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 11:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.88%E -2.39%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 11:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.88%E -2.39%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -7.88%E -2.39%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -9.28%E -2.85%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.28%E -2.85%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.28%E -2.85%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.28%E -2.85%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 14:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.28%E -2.85%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 17:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.28%E -2.85%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.48%EV -9.55%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.52%EV -7.01%E -5.43%K -24.17%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -10.67%E -3.33%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 17:11 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -1.24%E -0.908%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -1.24%E -0.908%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 17:11 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -1.24%E -0.908%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:11 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:11 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:11 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.96%E -1.44%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -2.69%E -1.99%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 15:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.25%EV -12.90%E -4.14%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.75%EV -7.01%E -5.43%K -24.17%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -14.86%E -4.87%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 16:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 16:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 16:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 16:41 |
| Novig◎ | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.59% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.41% | 1.5% | 2026-09-09 16:56 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30% | 1.7% | 2026-09-09 16:41 |