Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Sebastian Gorzny
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 92.45%1.08fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -58.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.64%92.54%92.42%94.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.031.0599.01%96.97%97.09%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Gorzny (Visit)
Prediction 7.55%13.25fair odd
EV +39.65%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.899%
assuming max odds 18.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.23%7.46%7.58%10.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0012.3712.0018.5011.11%8.08%8.33%5.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 92.45%; Sebastian Gorzny (Visit): 7.55%. For Sebastian Gorzny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.25. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.77%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.23%EV +39.65%E +2.14%K +2.27%G +0.899% | 3.4% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +28.33%E +1.67%K +1.77%G +0.502% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 21:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +28.33%E +1.67%K +1.77%G +0.502% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 06:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +13.23%E +0.882%K +0.945%G +0.125% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 15:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +13.23%E +0.882%K +0.945%G +0.125% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 06:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +13.23%E +0.882%K +0.945%G +0.125% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 17:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.62%E -6.56%K -662.44%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +13.23%E +0.882%K +0.945%G +0.125% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 09:13 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.37%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV +9.46%E +0.652%K +0.701%G +0.066% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 14:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.37%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV +9.46%E +0.652%K +0.701%G +0.066% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 14:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV +5.68%E +0.406%K +0.437%G +0.025% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 14:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -6.62%E -6.56%K -662.44%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +5.68%E +0.406%K +0.437%G +0.025% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 11:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +1.91%E +0.142%K +0.153%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 14:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +1.91%E +0.142%K +0.153%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 10:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +1.91%E +0.142%K +0.153%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 10:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.68%EV -2.93%E -2.79%K -58.53%G +0.000% | 13.30I 7.52%NM 7.32%EV +0.401%E +0.030%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-02 14:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.83%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 13.20I 7.58%NM 7.17%EV -0.354%E -0.027%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 13:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -1.86%E -0.143%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -1.86%E -0.143%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -1.86%E -0.143%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 06:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -1.86%E -0.143%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 06:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.69%EV -6.62%E -6.56%K -662.44%G +0.000% | 12.80I 7.81%NM 7.31%EV -3.37%E -0.264%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.52%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 12.61I 7.93%NM 7.48%EV -4.81%E -0.381%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 13:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -5.64%E -0.451%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 14:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -5.64%E -0.451%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -5.64%E -0.451%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -5.64%E -0.451%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.36%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 12.45I 8.03%NM 7.64%EV -6.02%E -0.483%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 10:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 07:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 12:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 12:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 05:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 14:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 10:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -13.19%E -1.15%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 14:46 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -15.07%E -1.34%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 06:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -2.93%E -2.79%K -58.53%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 06:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 06:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 06:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 14:08 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 06:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 06:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -6.62%E -6.56%K -662.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -32.06%E -3.56%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-02 12:42 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.51% | 13.33I 7.50%NM 7.49% | 0.1% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 14.99I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.09% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91% | 1.3% | 2026-09-02 14:31 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.96% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.04% | 1.5% | 2026-09-02 14:40 |