Langue:Français
Dane Sweeny v Lorenzo Musetti
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Dane Sweeny (Local)
Prévision 7.91%12.64cote équitable
EV +18.70%
Avantage +1.25%
Kelly +1.34%
Croissance +0.250%
avec la cote maximale 15.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
6.43%7.89%7.90%9.50%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
10.0012.0311.9915.0010.00%8.31%8.34%6.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visiteur)
Prévision 92.09%1.09cote équitable
EV -3.31%
Avantage -3.15%
Kelly -66.18%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.05
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
90.50%92.11%92.10%93.57%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.011.031.041.0599.01%96.69%96.62%95.24%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Dane Sweeny (Local) : 7.91% ; Lorenzo Musetti (Visiteur) : 92.09%. Pour Dane Sweeny (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 12.64. 13 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 15.00, soit une espérance positive de +18.70%.
Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.48%EV +18.70%E +1.25%K +1.34%G +0.250% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.52%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-03 11:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +18.70%E +1.25%K +1.34%G +0.250% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +18.70%E +1.25%K +1.34%G +0.250% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV +14.74%E +1.02%K +1.09%G +0.161% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.37%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 11:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +10.79%E +0.770%K +0.830%G +0.089% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-03 11:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +10.79%E +0.770%K +0.830%G +0.089% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -6.99%E -6.92%K -699.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 02:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 13.80I 7.25%NM 6.95%EV +9.20%E +0.667%K +0.719%G +0.066% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.05%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 11:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 13.25I 7.55%NM 7.21%EV +4.85%E +0.366%K +0.396%G +0.019% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.79%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 14:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +2.87%E +0.221%K +0.239%G +0.007% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -3.31%E -3.15%K -66.18%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +2.87%E +0.221%K +0.239%G +0.007% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +2.87%E +0.221%K +0.239%G +0.007% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +2.87%E +0.221%K +0.239%G +0.007% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 09:06 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +2.87%E +0.221%K +0.239%G +0.007% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 10:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV -1.08%E -0.087%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 19:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV -1.08%E -0.087%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 19:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -1.08%E -0.087%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 11:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -1.08%E -0.087%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 11:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -1.08%E -0.087%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -6.07%E -5.95%K -303.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 18:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -1.08%E -0.087%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -6.07%E -5.95%K -303.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -1.08%E -0.087%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -6.07%E -5.95%K -303.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 12.32I 8.12%NM 7.85%EV -2.51%E -0.204%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.15%EV -3.31%E -3.15%K -66.18%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 07:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 17:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 17:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 07:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 07:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 08:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -5.04%E -0.420%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.07%E -5.95%K -303.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 05:31 |
| GTbets🎯 | 11.98I 8.35%NM 7.92%EV -5.20%E -0.434%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.08%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 16:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 11.80I 8.47%NM 7.96%EV -6.62%E -0.561%K -0.613%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.04%EV -6.07%E -5.95%K -303.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -9.00%E -0.782%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.93%EV -6.99%E -6.92%K -699.24%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-03 17:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.54%EV -10.98%E -0.976%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.46%EV -3.31%E -3.15%K -66.18%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 17:53 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -10.98%E -0.976%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 07:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.50%EV -11.37%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.50%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 11:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -12.95%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 17:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -12.95%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -12.95%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 07:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -12.95%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 14:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -12.95%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -12.95%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -12.95%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.15%E -5.00%K -171.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 13:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -12.95%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -6.07%E -5.95%K -303.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 18:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 10.40I 9.62%NM 9.17%EV -17.70%E -1.70%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.83%EV -3.31%E -3.15%K -66.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -20.87%E -2.09%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.31%E -3.15%K -66.18%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.87%E -2.09%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 17:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.87%E -2.09%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.23%E -4.07%K -105.74%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 11:40 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (8)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01% | 0.2% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 19.50I 5.13%NM 5.11% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.89% | 0.4% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.37% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.63% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.40% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.60% | 0.8% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 1.0% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.82% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.18% | 1.1% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.94% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.06% | 1.2% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 17.99I 5.56%NM 5.42% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.58% | 2.6% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |