Language:English
Ben Shelton v Carlos Alcaraz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ben Shelton (Local)
Prediction 24.76%4.04fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.367%
Kelly +0.486%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.22%24.76%24.75%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.804.1028.57%26.14%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlos Alcaraz (Visit)
Prediction 75.24%1.33fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -10.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.07%75.24%75.25%76.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.271.271.2982.64%79.04%78.74%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ben Shelton (Local): 24.76%; Carlos Alcaraz (Visit): 75.24%. For Ben Shelton (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.51%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.51%E +0.367%K +0.486%G +0.007% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.70%E -5.40%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 01:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.51%E +0.367%K +0.486%G +0.007% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.70%E -5.40%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 24.02%EV +0.269%E +0.066%K +0.088%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.98%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-09 02:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV +0.269%E +0.066%K +0.088%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -5.19%E -4.12%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-09 02:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -0.722%E -0.180%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 02:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61%EV -2.94%E -2.28%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-09-09 03:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.44%E -3.50%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-08 17:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.44%E -3.50%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.19%E -4.12%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-09 01:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-07 15:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-08 10:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 01:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 01:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -0.969%E -0.242%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.70%E -5.40%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-09 02:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.85%EV -1.96%E -0.495%K -0.662%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.15%EV -6.70%E -5.40%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -2.21%E -0.559%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -6.70%E -5.40%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 02:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -3.45%E -0.883%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -2.94%E -2.28%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-09 02:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -3.45%E -0.883%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -3.45%E -0.883%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-09 02:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -3.45%E -0.883%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-09 02:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.45%E -0.883%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.19%E -4.12%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.45%E -0.883%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-07 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.45%E -0.883%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-07 15:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.71%EV -4.19%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.29%EV -4.44%E -3.50%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-09 01:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.68%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-08 05:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.61%EV -5.18%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.39%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.61%EV -5.18%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.39%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -5.43%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -4.44%E -3.50%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -5.92%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -2.94%E -2.28%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.92%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.19%E -4.12%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-07 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.92%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.19%E -4.12%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-07 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.92%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 01:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.92%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-07 13:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.92%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 02:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.92%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.70%E -5.40%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 02:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.94%E -2.28%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 02:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.69%E -2.88%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 02:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.19%E -4.12%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 02:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.19%E -4.12%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 02:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-08 17:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-08 10:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.16%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-09 01:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.40%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.44%E -3.50%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 02:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -9.63%E -2.64%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.44%E -3.50%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 03:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -9.63%E -2.64%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.44%E -3.50%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 03:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.87%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.94%E -2.28%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-08 14:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.87%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.94%E -2.28%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-08 14:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.87%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.94%E -2.28%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-08 14:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.87%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 02:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.87%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.84%EV -8.96%E -7.40%K -42.65%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-09 02:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -13.35%E -3.81%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -2.94%E -2.28%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 03:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.91% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.09% | 0.3% | 2026-09-09 03:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.05I 24.69%NM 24.58% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.42% | 0.4% | 2026-09-09 03:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-09-09 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 1.3% | 2026-09-09 02:50 |