Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev v Luciano Darderi

2026-09-07 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Prediction 87.36%1.14fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -3.55%
Kelly -39.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.87%87.53%87.41%91.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.091.091.1094.34%91.98%91.74%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luciano Darderi (Visit)

Prediction 12.64%7.91fair odd
EV +39.00%
Edge +3.55%
Kelly +3.90%
Growth +1.52%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.79%12.47%12.59%15.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.357.2311.0016.67%13.60%13.83%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alexander Zverev (Local): 87.36%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 12.64%. For Luciano Darderi (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.91. 12 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.00, producing a positive expected value of +39.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -7.39%E -6.98%K -123.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +39.00%E +3.55%K +3.90%G +1.52%3.4%2026-09-06 08:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -7.39%E -6.98%K -123.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +7.41%E +0.871%K +0.988%G +0.073%6.1%2026-09-06 06:20
FanDuel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.61%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.39%EV +6.14%E +0.731%K +0.830%G +0.051%4.5%2026-09-06 07:24
DraftKings🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.58%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.15%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.42%EV +4.88%E +0.588%K +0.668%G +0.033%5.5%2026-09-06 08:25
Coolbet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 88.24%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.76%EV +4.25%E +0.515%K +0.586%G +0.025%3.0%2026-09-06 06:36
Winamax (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +1.09%E +0.136%K +0.156%G +0.002%3.4%2026-09-06 07:50
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.09%E +0.136%K +0.156%G +0.002%5.1%2026-09-06 05:40
Bovada🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.09%E +0.136%K +0.156%G +0.002%5.1%2026-09-06 06:12
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.09%E +0.136%K +0.156%G +0.002%5.1%2026-09-06 07:25
Sky Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.09%E +0.136%K +0.156%G +0.002%5.1%2026-09-06 07:24
1xBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.94%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 12.06%EV +0.457%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 07:29
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.83%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.94I 12.59%NM 12.17%EV +0.331%E +0.042%K +0.048%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 07:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.67%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.33%EV -2.07%E -0.267%K -0.307%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 07:55
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.97%EV -7.39%E -6.98%K -123.24%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -2.07%E -0.267%K -0.307%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 07:24
GTbets🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.37%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.54I 13.26%NM 12.63%EV -4.72%E -0.627%K -0.722%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 06:46
Coral🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 07:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 07:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 07:24
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 06:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 06:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 06:20
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 06:21
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 06:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.23%E -0.697%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 06:20
Fanatics🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.01%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.99%EV -7.76%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 07:25
Fliff🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.11%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.89%EV -7.76%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 08:15
BetMGM🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -8.39%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 07:00
Neds🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -8.39%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 07:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -8.39%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 07:00
NordicBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.00%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.23I 13.83%NM 13.00%EV -8.64%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 07:25
Betsson🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.00%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.23I 13.83%NM 13.00%EV -8.64%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 07:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.85%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.15%EV -9.02%E -1.25%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 08:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.69%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.31%EV -10.28%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 07:28
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
Casumo🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:29
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:30
Bally Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:29
betPARX🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 06:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 07:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 07:24
betfred_uk🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 06:46
TAB🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 07:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 06:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -11.55%E -1.65%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 06:30
PlayUp🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 06:50
theScore Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -4.77%E -4.38%K -53.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -14.71%E -2.18%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 07:24
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.94%EV -5.65%E -5.23%K -70.59%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.06%EV -16.60%E -2.52%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 07:24
betano_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.87%E -2.75%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 07:19
Caesars🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.90%E -3.55%K -39.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.87%E -2.75%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 06:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.15%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -24.18%E -4.03%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 07:24
ReBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -6.52%E -6.09%K -93.15%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -24.18%E -4.03%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 07:26
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX1.11I 90.09%NM 88.45%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.55%1.9%2026-09-06 08:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18%2.6%2026-09-06 07:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18%2.6%2026-09-06 07:05
Matchbook1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18%2.6%2026-09-06 07:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 87.26%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.74%3.2%2026-09-06 07:05
Novig1.10I 90.91%NM 87.07%7.41I 13.50%NM 12.93%4.4%2026-09-06 07:25
Smarkets1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%5.4%2026-09-06 07:05