Language:English
Alexander Zverev v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexander Zverev (Local)
Prediction 87.32%1.15fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -18.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.41%87.31%87.36%89.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.081.081.1296.15%92.30%92.59%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 12.68%7.89fair odd
EV +14.10%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.249%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.63%12.69%12.64%14.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.817.579.0015.38%12.81%13.20%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Zverev (Local): 87.32%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 12.68%. For Luciano Darderi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.89. 25 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.10%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +7.77%E +0.914%K +1.04%G +0.080% | 4.4% | 2026-09-07 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -9.19%E -8.83%K -229.64%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +7.77%E +0.914%K +1.04%G +0.080% | 7.9% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.37%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 8.28I 12.08%NM 11.63%EV +4.98%E +0.601%K +0.684%G +0.034% | 3.8% | 2026-09-08 00:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 88.24%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.76%EV +4.60%E +0.557%K +0.634%G +0.029% | 3.0% | 2026-09-07 19:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003% | 5.1% | 2026-09-07 20:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 10:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003% | 6.0% | 2026-09-06 10:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.44%E -7.02%K -123.98%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 10:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.44%E -7.02%K -123.98%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 10:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.44%E -7.02%K -123.98%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 10:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.67%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.33%EV -1.74%E -0.225%K -0.258%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-07 23:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -1.74%E -0.225%K -0.258%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-08 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-08 00:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-08 00:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.46%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.54%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-07 23:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.46%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.54%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-07 23:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.38%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 7.55I 13.25%NM 12.62%EV -4.28%E -0.567%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-08 00:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-08 00:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-08 00:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-07 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-07 22:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-07 23:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-07 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-08 00:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-07 21:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-07 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-07 22:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-07 19:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.24%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 7.45I 13.42%NM 12.76%EV -5.55%E -0.744%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-07 23:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.11%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.89%EV -7.45%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.72%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.28%EV -8.08%E -1.11%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -8.08%E -1.11%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-07 22:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.96%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.04%EV -8.72%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-08 00:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.47%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.03I 14.22%NM 13.53%EV -10.87%E -1.55%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-08 00:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -2.20%E -1.96%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-08 00:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-08 00:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 21:53 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 22:08 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.68%EV -7.44%E -7.02%K -123.98%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.32%EV -12.52%E -1.81%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -15.06%E -2.25%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -17.59%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-08 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.59%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.59%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.59%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.66% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 12.34% | 0.1% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.14% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86% | 0.4% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.14% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86% | 0.4% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.29% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71% | 2.3% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18% | 2.6% | 2026-09-08 01:00 |