Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Zverev v Luciano Darderi

Início: 2026-09-08 01:12 UTC

Final: Alexander Zverev 3–0 Luciano Darderi

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Previsão 87.32%1.15odd justa
EV -2.20%
Vantagem -1.96%
Kelly -18.33%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.12

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
85.41%87.31%87.36%89.37%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.041.081.081.1296.15%92.30%92.59%89.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Luciano Darderi (Visitante)

Previsão 12.68%7.89odd justa
EV +14.10%
Vantagem +1.57%
Kelly +1.76%
Crescimento +0.249%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
10.63%12.69%12.64%14.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.507.817.579.0015.38%12.81%13.20%11.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Alexander Zverev (Local): 87.32%; Luciano Darderi (Visitante): 12.68%. Para Luciano Darderi (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.89. 25 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 9.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +14.10%.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
LiveScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Grosvenor🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Casumo🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
BetRivers🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Bally Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
betPARX🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +14.10%E +1.57%K +1.76%G +0.249%4.6%2026-09-07 20:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +7.77%E +0.914%K +1.04%G +0.080%4.4%2026-09-07 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -9.19%E -8.83%K -229.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +7.77%E +0.914%K +1.04%G +0.080%7.9%2026-09-07 20:50
GTbets🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.37%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000%8.28I 12.08%NM 11.63%EV +4.98%E +0.601%K +0.684%G +0.034%3.8%2026-09-08 00:40
Coolbet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 88.24%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.76%EV +4.60%E +0.557%K +0.634%G +0.029%3.0%2026-09-07 19:00
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003%5.1%2026-09-07 20:50
BoyleSports🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003%5.1%2026-09-06 10:35
William Hill🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003%6.0%2026-09-06 10:04
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.44%E -7.02%K -123.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003%6.8%2026-09-06 10:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.44%E -7.02%K -123.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003%6.8%2026-09-06 10:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.44%E -7.02%K -123.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.43%E +0.178%K +0.204%G +0.003%6.8%2026-09-06 10:00
Bovada🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.67%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.33%EV -1.74%E -0.225%K -0.258%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -6.57%E -6.14%K -93.80%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -1.74%E -0.225%K -0.258%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 01:00
FanDuel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-08 00:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-08 00:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-08 00:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.46%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.54%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-07 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.46%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.54%EV -3.64%E -0.480%K -0.552%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-07 23:05
Pinnacle🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.38%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.62%EV -4.28%E -0.567%K -0.653%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 00:35
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-08 01:00
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-08 00:25
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-08 00:25
Neds🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 22:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 22:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 23:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 23:00
PlayUp🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 00:50
betano_uk🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 21:24
Coral🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 22:10
BetUS🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.91%E -0.655%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 19:05
BetAnything🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.24%EV -4.82%E -4.42%K -53.55%G +0.000%7.45I 13.42%NM 12.76%EV -5.55%E -0.744%K -0.860%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-07 23:00
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.11%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.89%EV -7.45%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 01:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.72%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.28%EV -8.08%E -1.11%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 01:00
BetMGM🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -8.08%E -1.11%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 22:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.96%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.04%EV -8.72%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 00:20
1xBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.47%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%7.03I 14.22%NM 13.53%EV -10.87%E -1.55%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 00:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -2.20%E -1.96%K -18.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-08 01:00
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-08 00:25
theScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-08 01:00
betfred_uk🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 00:45
Caesars🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 21:53
TAB🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.69%E -5.27%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.25%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 22:08
Fliff🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.68%EV -7.44%E -7.02%K -123.98%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.32%EV -12.52%E -1.81%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 01:00
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -15.06%E -2.25%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 01:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.07%E -2.77%K -27.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -17.59%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 00:25
NordicBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.59%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 01:00
Betsson🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.59%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 01:00
ReBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.95%E -3.59%K -39.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.59%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 01:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.66%8.10I 12.35%NM 12.34%0.1%2026-09-08 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 88.14%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86%0.4%2026-09-08 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 88.14%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86%0.4%2026-09-08 01:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%0.7%2026-09-08 01:00
Matchbook◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%0.7%2026-09-08 01:00
Novig◎1.12I 89.29%NM 87.29%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71%2.3%2026-09-08 01:00
Smarkets◎1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18%2.6%2026-09-08 01:00