Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Blockx v Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

2026-08-31 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Blockx (Local)

Prediction 78.55%1.27fair odd
EV +3.69%
Edge +2.80%
Kelly +11.54%
Growth +0.426%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.35%78.46%78.74%81.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.191.171.3286.96%83.89%85.11%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit)

Prediction 21.45%4.66fair odd
EV +11.73%
Edge +2.25%
Kelly +2.79%
Growth +0.327%

assuming max odds 5.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.21%21.54%21.26%26.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.454.375.2128.17%22.47%22.91%19.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alexander Blockx (Local): 78.55%; Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit): 21.45%. For Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.66. 7 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.21, producing a positive expected value of +11.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 74.66%EV +3.69%E +2.80%K +11.54%G +0.426%3.89I 25.71%NM 25.34%EV -16.58%E -4.26%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-28 22:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV +1.34%E +1.04%K +4.61%G +0.062%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -23.87%E -6.72%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 22:20
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.60%EV -1.81%E -1.45%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.40%EV -7.14%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-29 00:05
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +1.86%E +0.393%K +0.497%G +0.009%4.4%2026-08-28 23:58
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.50%E -0.777%K -0.999%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 00:05
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -4.57%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -6.52%E -5.48%K -34.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -5.64%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 00:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -7.31%E -6.19%K -40.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -7.79%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 00:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -7.31%E -6.19%K -40.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -7.79%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 00:05
LeoVegas🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -7.31%E -6.19%K -40.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -8.86%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 00:09
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -8.09%E -6.92%K -47.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +7.23%E +1.45%K +1.81%G +0.131%5.5%2026-08-29 00:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -8.09%E -6.92%K -47.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +7.23%E +1.45%K +1.81%G +0.131%5.5%2026-08-29 00:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -8.09%E -6.92%K -47.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +7.23%E +1.45%K +1.81%G +0.131%5.5%2026-08-29 00:14
ReBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -8.09%E -6.92%K -47.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -12.07%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -8.09%E -6.92%K -47.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -12.07%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 00:03
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.59%EV -8.09%E -6.92%K -47.59%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.41%EV -13.15%E -3.25%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 00:04
DraftKings🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.79%EV -8.88%E -7.65%K -55.48%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.21%EV +11.73%E +2.25%K +2.79%G +0.327%5.4%2026-08-29 00:04
GTbets🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.14%EV -8.88%E -7.65%K -55.48%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.86%EV +7.01%E +1.41%K +1.76%G +0.123%6.2%2026-08-29 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.30%EV -8.88%E -7.65%K -55.48%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -15.29%E -3.87%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 00:05
SportsBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -9.66%E -8.40%K -64.41%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV +5.08%E +1.04%K +1.30%G +0.066%7.4%2026-08-29 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%1.3%2026-08-29 01:05
Smarkets1.16I 86.21%NM 76.85%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%12.2%2026-08-29 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 70.32%2.82I 35.46%NM 29.68%19.5%2026-08-29 01:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 70.32%2.82I 35.46%NM 29.68%19.5%2026-08-29 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 70.18%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.82%19.7%2026-08-29 00:21
Arbitrage (24 combinations) +5.32%1xBet 1.32 (79.8%) / DraftKings 5.21 (20.2%)Show all 24 combinations
Alexander Blockx (Local)Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit)Margin
1xBet🎯 1.32 (79.8%)DraftKings🎯 5.21 (20.2%)+5.32%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (79.1%)888sport🎯 5.00 (20.9%)+4.43%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (79.1%)Mr Green (SE)🎯 5.00 (20.9%)+4.43%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (79.1%)888sport (SE)🎯 5.00 (20.9%)+4.43%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (79.1%)GTbets🎯 4.99 (20.9%)+4.39%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (78.8%)SportsBet🎯 4.90 (21.2%)+3.99%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (80.2%)DraftKings🎯 5.21 (19.8%)+3.40%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (78.3%)Bovada🎯 4.75 (21.7%)+3.29%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (79.5%)888sport🎯 5.00 (20.5%)+2.54%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (79.5%)Mr Green (SE)🎯 5.00 (20.5%)+2.54%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (79.5%)888sport (SE)🎯 5.00 (20.5%)+2.54%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (79.5%)GTbets🎯 4.99 (20.5%)+2.50%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (79.2%)SportsBet🎯 4.90 (20.8%)+2.12%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (77.3%)Fanatics🎯 4.50 (22.7%)+2.06%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (77.1%)theScore Bet🎯 4.45 (22.9%)+1.80%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (76.9%)Unibet (UK)🎯 4.40 (23.1%)+1.54%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (78.6%)Bovada🎯 4.75 (21.4%)+1.45%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (76.6%)betano_uk🎯 4.33 (23.4%)+1.16%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (76.5%)MyBookie.ag🎯 4.30 (23.5%)+0.996%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (76.5%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.30 (23.5%)+0.996%
betano_uk🎯 1.25 (80.7%)DraftKings🎯 5.21 (19.3%)+0.813%
1xBet🎯 1.32 (76.3%)LeoVegas🎯 4.25 (23.7%)+0.718%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (77.7%)Fanatics🎯 4.50 (22.3%)+0.259%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.29 (77.5%)theScore Bet🎯 4.45 (22.5%)+0.009%