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Tommy Paul v Valentin Vacherot
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy Paul (Local)
Prediction 59.70%1.67fair odd
EV -0.295%
Edge -0.177%
Kelly -0.441%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%59.66%59.74%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.581.581.6767.11%63.26%63.49%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valentin Vacherot (Visit)
Prediction 40.30%2.48fair odd
EV +0.742%
Edge +0.297%
Kelly +0.494%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%40.34%40.26%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.372.402.5047.62%42.22%41.75%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tommy Paul (Local): 59.70%; Valentin Vacherot (Visit): 40.30%. For Valentin Vacherot (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.742%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.65%E -5.66%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.742%E +0.297%K +0.494%G +0.004% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.65%E -5.66%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.742%E +0.297%K +0.494%G +0.004% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.65%E -5.66%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.742%E +0.297%K +0.494%G +0.004% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.65%E -5.66%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.742%E +0.297%K +0.494%G +0.004% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -1.27%E -0.520%K -0.878%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-10-12 12:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -1.27%E -0.520%K -0.878%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 10:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.46%E -4.81%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -1.27%E -0.520%K -0.878%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 11:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.08%E -0.856%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -2.48%E -1.03%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-12 11:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -2.89%E -1.20%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 11:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.29%E -1.37%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-12 11:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.29%E -1.37%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-12 11:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.29%E -1.37%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-12 11:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.07%E -3.19%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.29%E -1.37%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-12 12:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.29%E -1.37%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 12:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.29%E -1.37%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.29%E -1.37%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 11:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -4.47%E -2.80%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.10%EV -3.69%E -1.54%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 11:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.09%E -1.72%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 11:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.65%E -5.66%K -16.33%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -4.09%E -1.72%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 10:58 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -4.90%E -2.08%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.30%E -2.26%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 09:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.88%E -2.41%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.30%E -2.26%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-12 09:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.88%E -2.41%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.30%E -2.26%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-12 09:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.30%E -2.26%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 09:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.30%E -2.26%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 11:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.30%E -2.26%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 10:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.30%E -2.26%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 12:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -6.11%E -2.62%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-12 09:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.88%E -2.41%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.11%E -2.62%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 09:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.88%E -2.41%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.11%E -2.62%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 09:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.88%E -2.41%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.11%E -2.62%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 10:17 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.89%EV -11.04%E -7.41%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.11%EV -6.51%E -2.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-12 10:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -4.47%E -2.80%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -6.91%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 10:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.88%E -2.41%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.32%E -3.18%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-12 10:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.47%E -2.80%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.32%E -3.18%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 11:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.07%E -3.19%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.32%E -3.18%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-12 09:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.32%E -3.18%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-12 11:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.46%E -4.81%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.32%E -3.18%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 11:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.33%E -4.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 10:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.33%E -4.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 10:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.33%E -4.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 06:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.47%E -2.80%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.33%E -4.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-12 10:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.33%E -4.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-12 10:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.33%E -4.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-12 10:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -0.295%E -0.177%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -15.38%E -7.32%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-10 16:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -0.295%E -0.177%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -15.38%E -7.32%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-10 16:33 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 0.2% | 2026-10-12 12:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 0.2% | 2026-10-12 12:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 0.2% | 2026-10-12 12:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 0.2% | 2026-10-12 12:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-10-12 12:09 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-10-12 12:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85% | 2.0% | 2026-10-12 12:05 |