Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tommy Paul v Valentin Vacherot

2026-10-12 04:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tommy Paul (Local)

Prediction 57.00%1.75fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -5.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.56%56.92%56.96%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.661.671.6963.29%60.27%60.06%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Valentin Vacherot (Visit)

Prediction 43.00%2.33fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.855%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%43.08%43.04%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.2848.78%45.60%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tommy Paul (Local): 57.00%; Valentin Vacherot (Visit): 43.00%. For Valentin Vacherot (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.28, with an expected value of -1.95%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -3.68%E -2.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -1.95%E -0.855%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-10 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.68%E -2.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-10 16:46
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.68%E -2.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-10 16:50
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.68%E -2.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 18:24
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 17:20
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.96%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 16:35
GTbets🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -5.82%E -2.66%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 16:35
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 15:50
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 17:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 17:15
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 15:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 17:30
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 17:54
Betsson🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.53%E -2.04%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.53%E -2.04%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 15:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:44
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:25
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:45
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:45
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:44
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 17:15
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 16:34
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 16:33
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:49
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 15:45
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 17:15
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.53%E -3.98%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -6.68%E -3.08%K -5.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 15:45
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.67%E -4.73%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 15:44
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.67%E -4.73%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 15:44
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.67%E -4.73%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.22%EV -8.81%E -5.50%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.78%EV -7.97%E -3.72%K -6.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-10 16:50
ReBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.81%E -5.50%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 15:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -9.95%E -6.30%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.84%E -5.78%K -11.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -9.95%E -6.30%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.84%E -5.78%K -11.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%3.0%2026-10-10 18:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%3.7%2026-10-10 19:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%3.7%2026-10-10 19:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%3.7%2026-10-10 19:35
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 57.53%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%10.0%2026-10-10 20:05
Novig◎1.56I 64.10%NM 57.49%2.11I 47.39%NM 42.51%11.5%2026-10-10 16:40