Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tommy Paul v Valentin Vacherot

2026-10-12 04:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tommy Paul (Local)

Predicción 57.00%1.75momio equitativo
EV -3.68%
Ventaja -2.18%
Kelly -5.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.56%56.92%56.96%57.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.581.661.661.6963.29%60.27%60.24%59.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Valentin Vacherot (Visitante)

Predicción 43.00%2.33momio equitativo
EV -1.95%
Ventaja -0.855%
Kelly -1.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.41%43.08%43.04%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.192.202.2848.78%45.59%45.45%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Tommy Paul (Local): 57.00%; Valentin Vacherot (Visitante): 43.00%. Para Valentin Vacherot (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.33. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.28, con un valor esperado de -1.95%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -3.68%E -2.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -1.95%E -0.855%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-10 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.68%E -2.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-10 16:46
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.68%E -2.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-10 16:50
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.68%E -2.18%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 18:24
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 17:20
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.96%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 16:35
GTbets🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -5.82%E -2.66%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 16:35
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 15:50
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 17:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 17:15
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 15:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 17:30
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 17:54
Betsson🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.53%E -2.04%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.53%E -2.04%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 15:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:44
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:45
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:45
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:44
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 17:15
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 16:34
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.82%E -2.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 16:33
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:49
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:50
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.53%E -2.04%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 20:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 15:45
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 17:15
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.53%E -3.98%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -6.68%E -3.08%K -5.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 15:45
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.67%E -4.73%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 15:44
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.67%E -4.73%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 15:44
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.67%E -4.73%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.22%EV -8.81%E -5.50%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.78%EV -7.97%E -3.72%K -6.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-10 16:50
ReBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.81%E -5.50%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 15:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -9.95%E -6.30%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.84%E -5.78%K -11.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -9.95%E -6.30%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.84%E -5.78%K -11.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 15:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%3.0%2026-10-10 18:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%3.7%2026-10-10 19:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%3.7%2026-10-10 19:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%3.7%2026-10-10 19:35
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 57.53%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%10.0%2026-10-10 20:55
Novig◎1.56I 64.10%NM 57.49%2.11I 47.39%NM 42.51%11.5%2026-10-10 16:40