The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Ben Shelton v Carlos Alcaraz

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 14:14 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ben Shelton (Local)

Prediction 23.49%4.26fair odd
EV +5.70%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.47%23.48%23.63%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.994.004.5027.78%25.06%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlos Alcaraz (Visit)

Prediction 76.51%1.31fair odd
EV -0.535%
Edge -0.411%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.23%76.52%76.37%78.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.241.241.3085.47%80.65%80.65%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ben Shelton (Local): 23.49%; Carlos Alcaraz (Visit): 76.51%. For Ben Shelton (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV +5.70%E +1.27%K +1.63%G +0.093%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -5.89%E -4.79%K -25.61%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-08 14:05
DraftKings🎯4.42I 22.62%NM 21.77%EV +3.82%E +0.864%K +1.12%G +0.043%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.23%EV -5.89%E -4.79%K -25.61%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 14:05
theScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +3.35%E +0.761%K +0.985%G +0.033%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 14:04
Unibet (UK)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +0.999%E +0.232%K +0.303%G +0.003%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 14:04
SportsBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.176%E -0.041%K -0.054%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.89%E -4.79%K -25.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-08 13:00
NordicBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 14:04
Betsson🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 14:05
ReBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 14:00
Fanatics🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 13:55
Bet Right🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 08:35
FanDuel🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -2.52%E -0.608%K -0.801%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 12:59
Pinnacle🎯4.14I 24.15%NM 23.62%EV -2.76%E -0.666%K -0.879%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 76.38%EV -2.06%E -1.61%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.3%2026-11-08 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯4.13I 24.21%NM 23.23%EV -2.99%E -0.725%K -0.957%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.77%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 14:02
LowVig.ag🎯4.13I 24.21%NM 23.23%EV -2.99%E -0.725%K -0.957%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.77%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 14:02
Coolbet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -3.70%E -0.902%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-08 12:15
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.70%E -0.902%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-08 07:45
LeoVegas🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -4.87%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 13:55
GTbets🎯4.01I 24.94%NM 24.48%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 75.52%EV -0.535%E -0.411%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.9%2026-11-08 07:35
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-08 11:40
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-08 09:55
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-08 09:55
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-08 14:05
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-08 05:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-08 09:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-08 09:55
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Bally Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
betPARX🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:14
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 12:15
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 11:25
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 11:25
BetAnything🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.22%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.60%E -2.85%K -13.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 13:55
picklebet_au🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -8.40%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 13:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.40%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -8.19%E -6.82%K -40.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -8.40%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.62%EV -8.95%E -7.52%K -47.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-08 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -9.57%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 13:40
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -9.57%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 13:10
NetBet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -9.57%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%EV -7.42%E -6.13%K -35.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 13:05
1xBet🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -10.28%E -2.69%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 14:04
TAB🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-08 09:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 07:35
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 11:40
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.30%E -1.01%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 07:44
Neds🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-08 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-08 11:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-08 07:15
Fliff🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 14:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -8.19%E -6.82%K -40.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-08 12:15
Betclic (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -10.48%E -8.96%K -61.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-08 14:04
betano_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -15.44%E -4.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-08 09:55
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -15.44%E -4.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-08 12:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79%0.2%2026-11-08 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79%0.2%2026-11-08 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79%0.2%2026-11-08 13:50
Novig◎4.17I 23.98%NM 23.91%1.31I 76.34%NM 76.09%0.3%2026-11-08 14:05
ProphetX◎4.15I 24.10%NM 23.85%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.15%1.0%2026-11-08 14:05
Matchbook◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64%1.9%2026-11-08 13:50
Smarkets◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78%2.5%2026-11-08 14:05

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