默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Ben Shelton v Carlos Alcaraz

开赛时间： 2026-11-08 14:14 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

63 家博彩公司 (20 家纳入分析 )

23%

77%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Ben Shelton (主队)

预测 23.49%4.26公平赔率

EV +5.70%

优势 +1.27%

Kelly +1.63%

增长率 +0.093%

假设最高赔率为 4.50

博彩公司预测分布

21.47%23.48%23.63%25.77%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

3.603.994.004.5027.78%25.06%25.00%22.22%最小值均值中位数最大值

Carlos Alcaraz (客队)

预测 76.51%1.31公平赔率

EV -0.535%

优势 -0.411%

Kelly -1.78%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.30

博彩公司预测分布

74.23%76.52%76.37%78.53%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.171.241.241.3085.47%80.65%80.65%76.92%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Ben Shelton (主队)：23.49%；Carlos Alcaraz (客队)：76.51%。对于“Ben Shelton (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为4.26。当时有4家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为4.50，对应+5.70%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (63 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
Winamax (DE)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV +5.70%E +1.27%K +1.63%G +0.093%	1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -5.89%E -4.79%K -25.61%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-11-08 14:05
DraftKings🎯	4.42I 22.62%NM 21.77%EV +3.82%E +0.864%K +1.12%G +0.043%	1.23I 81.30%NM 78.23%EV -5.89%E -4.79%K -25.61%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-11-08 14:05
theScore Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +3.35%E +0.761%K +0.985%G +0.033%	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-08 14:04
Unibet (UK)🎯	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +0.999%E +0.232%K +0.303%G +0.003%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-11-08 14:04
SportsBet🎯	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.176%E -0.041%K -0.054%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.89%E -4.79%K -25.61%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-08 13:00
NordicBet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-08 14:04
Betsson🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-08 14:05
ReBet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-08 14:00
Fanatics🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-08 13:55
Bet Right🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.35%E -0.321%K -0.422%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-08 08:35
FanDuel🎯	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -2.52%E -0.608%K -0.801%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-08 12:59
Pinnacle🎯	4.14I 24.15%NM 23.62%EV -2.76%E -0.666%K -0.879%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 76.38%EV -2.06%E -1.61%K -7.37%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-11-08 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	4.13I 24.21%NM 23.23%EV -2.99%E -0.725%K -0.957%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.77%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-08 14:02
LowVig.ag🎯	4.13I 24.21%NM 23.23%EV -2.99%E -0.725%K -0.957%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.77%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-08 14:02
Coolbet🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -3.70%E -0.902%K -1.19%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.48%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-11-08 12:15
Tipico (DE)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.70%E -0.902%K -1.19%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-11-08 07:45
LeoVegas🎯	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -4.87%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-08 13:55
GTbets🎯	4.01I 24.94%NM 24.48%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 75.52%EV -0.535%E -0.411%K -1.78%G +0.000%	1.9%	2026-11-08 07:35
BetMGM🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.48%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-11-08 11:40
888sport🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-08 09:55
William Hill🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-08 09:55
Betway🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-08 14:05
Bovada🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-08 05:00
888sport (SE)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-08 09:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-08 09:55
Grosvenor🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Unibet (SE)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Casumo🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
LiveScore Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Unibet (NL)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
TABtouch🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Unibet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
BetRivers🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Bally Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
betPARX🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:14
ATG (SE)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.13%E -4.13%K -21.36%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 12:15
Paddy Power🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-08 11:25
Sky Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.05%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-08 11:25
BetAnything🎯	3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.22%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.60%E -2.85%K -13.83%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-08 13:55
picklebet_au🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -8.40%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-08 13:15
Unibet (FR)🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.40%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -8.19%E -6.82%K -40.93%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-11-08 13:50
Winamax (FR)🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -8.40%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 76.62%EV -8.95%E -7.52%K -47.11%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-11-08 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -9.57%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-08 13:40
PlayUp🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -9.57%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-08 13:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -9.57%E -2.49%K -3.36%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%EV -7.42%E -6.13%K -35.34%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-11-08 13:05
1xBet🎯	3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -10.28%E -2.69%K -3.64%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.48%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-08 14:04
TAB🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -2.83%E -2.23%K -10.48%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-08 09:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-08 07:35
Coral🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-08 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-08 11:40
BoyleSports🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.30%E -1.01%K -4.48%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-08 07:44
Neds🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-08 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-08 11:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-08 07:15
Fliff🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.66%E -5.46%K -30.25%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-11-08 14:05
PMU (FR)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -8.19%E -6.82%K -40.93%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-11-08 12:15
Betclic (FR)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -11.92%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -10.48%E -8.96%K -61.65%G +0.000%	12.1%	2026-11-08 14:04
betano_uk🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -15.44%E -4.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-08 09:55
Bet Victor🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -15.44%E -4.29%K -5.94%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.36%E -3.49%K -17.44%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-08 12:13

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (7)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79%	0.2%	2026-11-08 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79%	0.2%	2026-11-08 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79%	0.2%	2026-11-08 13:50
Novig◎	4.17I 23.98%NM 23.91%	1.31I 76.34%NM 76.09%	0.3%	2026-11-08 14:05
ProphetX◎	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.85%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.15%	1.0%	2026-11-08 14:05
Matchbook◎	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%	1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64%	1.9%	2026-11-08 13:50
Smarkets◎	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22%	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78%	2.5%	2026-11-08 14:05

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