Language:English
Joao Fonseca v Alexander Zverev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joao Fonseca (Local)
Prediction 45.48%2.20fair odd
EV +12.80%
Edge +5.16%
Kelly +8.65%
Growth +1.11%
assuming max odds 2.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.77%44.86%45.47%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.172.152.4852.36%46.04%46.62%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Zverev (Visit)
Prediction 54.52%1.83fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%55.14%54.53%61.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.661.671.8065.36%60.08%59.88%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joao Fonseca (Local): 45.48%; Alexander Zverev (Visit): 54.52%. For Joao Fonseca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV +12.80%E +5.16%K +8.65%G +1.11% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -12.23%E -7.59%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-10 09:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV +12.80%E +5.16%K +8.65%G +1.11% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -14.41%E -9.18%K -25.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV +12.80%E +5.16%K +8.65%G +1.11% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -14.41%E -9.18%K -25.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV +10.98%E +4.50%K +7.62%G +0.837% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV -14.41%E -9.18%K -25.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +9.16%E +3.82%K +6.54%G +0.599% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -14.95%E -9.59%K -26.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-10 09:11 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV +7.79%E +3.29%K +5.69%G +0.443% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -16.59%E -10.84%K -31.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 09:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +6.88%E +2.93%K +5.10%G +0.351% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -12.77%E -7.98%K -21.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +6.88%E +2.93%K +5.10%G +0.351% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -12.77%E -7.98%K -21.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV +6.88%E +2.93%K +5.10%G +0.351% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -13.86%E -8.77%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-10 09:13 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV +6.88%E +2.93%K +5.10%G +0.351% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -15.50%E -10.00%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 09:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +4.61%E +2.00%K +3.55%G +0.163% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -11.68%E -7.21%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 09:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +4.61%E +2.00%K +3.55%G +0.163% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -11.68%E -7.21%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV +4.61%E +2.00%K +3.55%G +0.163% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -12.23%E -7.59%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +4.61%E +2.00%K +3.55%G +0.163% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -12.77%E -7.98%K -21.29%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-10 09:11 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV +4.61%E +2.00%K +3.55%G +0.163% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -13.86%E -8.77%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.34%E +1.04%K +1.87%G +0.044% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.59%E -6.46%K -16.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV +2.34%E +1.04%K +1.87%G +0.044% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -13.86%E -8.77%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV +2.34%E +1.04%K +1.87%G +0.044% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -13.86%E -8.77%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 09:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV +0.062%E +0.028%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -7.87%E -4.65%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.062%E +0.028%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.41%E -5.01%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.062%E +0.028%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.96%E -5.36%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +0.062%E +0.028%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -11.68%E -7.21%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -0.848%E -0.389%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -8.41%E -5.01%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -0.848%E -0.389%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -8.41%E -5.01%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -0.848%E -0.389%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -8.41%E -5.01%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -0.848%E -0.389%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -8.41%E -5.01%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -0.848%E -0.389%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -8.41%E -5.01%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44%EV -1.30%E -0.600%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -12.77%E -7.98%K -21.29%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.21%E -1.03%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.96%E -5.36%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -2.67%E -1.25%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -9.50%E -5.72%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -2.67%E -1.25%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -9.50%E -5.72%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.59%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -3.58%E -1.69%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%EV -10.59%E -6.46%K -16.55%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.50%E -1.98%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.59%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.32%E -4.31%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.32%E -4.31%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.96%E -5.36%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.96%E -5.36%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.96%E -5.36%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.96%E -5.36%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -11.68%E -7.21%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.94%E -2.36%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.59%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.72%EV -6.31%E -3.06%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.28%EV -12.77%E -7.98%K -21.29%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.76%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.50%E -1.98%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.76%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.50%E -1.98%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.76%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.14%E -2.95%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.76%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.78%E -3.96%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.76%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.32%E -4.31%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.76%E -3.30%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.32%E -4.31%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 09:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -8.13%E -4.02%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -8.41%E -5.01%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.03%E -4.52%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.59%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -9.03%E -4.52%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.23%E -3.62%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -9.03%E -4.52%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.78%E -3.96%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.31%E -5.80%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.87%E -1.04%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.31%E -5.80%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.87%E -1.04%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%EV -11.76%E -6.06%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%EV -7.32%E -4.31%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -13.13%E -6.87%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -1.87%E -1.04%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-10 09:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.39% | 0.1% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 0.5% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 0.6% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92% | 1.6% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.65% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.35% | 2.6% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72% | 3.7% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 09:20 |