语言:简体中文
Carlos Alcaraz v Joao Fonseca
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Carlos Alcaraz (主队)
预测 83.85%1.19公平赔率
EV -3.57%
优势 -3.10%
Kelly -23.80%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.15
博彩公司预测分布
81.43%83.60%84.05%85.47%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.101.131.131.1590.91%88.38%88.50%86.96%最小值均值中位数最大值
Joao Fonseca (客队)
预测 16.15%6.19公平赔率
EV +6.42%
优势 +0.974%
Kelly +1.15%
增长率 +0.074%
假设最高赔率为 6.59
博彩公司预测分布
14.53%16.40%15.95%18.57%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
5.005.715.606.5920.00%17.52%17.86%15.17%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Carlos Alcaraz (主队)：83.85%；Joao Fonseca (客队)：16.15%。 对于“Joao Fonseca (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为6.19。 当时有4家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为6.59，对应+6.42%的正期望值。
博彩公司赔率 (49 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 ▼ | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV +6.42%E +0.974%K +1.15%G +0.074% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:23 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.83%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.32I 15.82%NM 15.17%EV +2.06%E +0.325%K +0.387%G +0.008% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.79%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.21%EV +1.73%E +0.275%K +0.327%G +0.006% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.44%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 6.24I 16.03%NM 15.56%EV +0.765%E +0.123%K +0.146%G +0.001% | 3.0% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV -2.30%E -0.381%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:22 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:11 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.92%E -6.24%K -62.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -3.76%E -0.630%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.73%E -0.801%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.73%E -0.801%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -7.76%E -7.06%K -77.63%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -4.73%E -0.801%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.15%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.15%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 00:23 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.58%EV -7.76%E -7.06%K -77.63%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -11.18%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.18%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.18%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.92%E -6.24%K -62.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -11.18%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -12.80%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -14.41%E -2.72%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -14.41%E -2.72%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -16.03%E -3.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -17.64%E -3.46%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -19.26%E -3.85%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -19.26%E -3.85%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-20 23:58 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (7)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.11% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.27% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.73% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.01% | 5.99I 16.69%NM 15.99% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |