Idioma:Español
Carlos Alcaraz v Joao Fonseca
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Predicción 83.85%1.19momio equitativo
EV -3.57%
Ventaja -3.10%
Kelly -23.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.15
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
81.43%83.60%84.05%85.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.101.131.131.1590.91%88.38%88.50%86.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Joao Fonseca (Visitante)
Predicción 16.15%6.19momio equitativo
EV +6.42%
Ventaja +0.974%
Kelly +1.15%
Crecimiento +0.074%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.59
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.53%16.40%15.95%18.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.715.606.5920.00%17.52%17.86%15.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 83.85%; Joao Fonseca (Visitante): 16.15%. Para Joao Fonseca (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.19. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.59, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +6.42%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV +6.42%E +0.974%K +1.15%G +0.074% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:23 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.83%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.32I 15.82%NM 15.17%EV +2.06%E +0.325%K +0.387%G +0.008% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.79%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.21%EV +1.73%E +0.275%K +0.327%G +0.006% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.44%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 6.24I 16.03%NM 15.56%EV +0.765%E +0.123%K +0.146%G +0.001% | 3.0% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV -2.30%E -0.381%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:22 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:11 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.92%E -6.24%K -62.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -3.11%E -0.518%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -3.76%E -0.630%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.73%E -0.801%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.73%E -0.801%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -7.76%E -7.06%K -77.63%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -4.73%E -0.801%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.15%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.15%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 00:23 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.58%EV -7.76%E -7.06%K -77.63%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -9.57%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -11.18%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.18%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.18%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.92%E -6.24%K -62.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -11.18%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -6.09%E -5.43%K -50.72%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -12.80%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -3.57%E -3.10%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -14.41%E -2.72%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -14.41%E -2.72%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -15.22%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -16.03%E -3.08%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -17.64%E -3.46%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 00:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.41%E -3.87%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -19.26%E -3.85%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -5.25%E -4.64%K -40.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -19.26%E -3.85%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-20 23:58 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.11% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.27% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.73% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.01% | 5.99I 16.69%NM 15.99% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |