L’École des cotes

Arthur Fils v Darwin Blanch

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-20 23:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Arthur Fils (Local)

Prévision 81.89%1.22cote équitable
EV -3.37%
Avantage -2.86%
Kelly -18.74%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.18

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
80.17%82.10%81.43%85.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.101.141.151.1890.91%87.34%86.96%84.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Darwin Blanch (Visiteur)

Prévision 18.11%5.52cote équitable
EV +19.18%
Avantage +2.91%
Kelly +3.44%
Croissance +0.659%

avec la cote maximale 6.58

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.77%17.90%18.57%19.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.655.395.506.5821.51%18.54%18.18%15.20%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.14I 87.72%NM 85.23%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%6.58I 15.20%NM 14.77%EV +19.18%E +2.91%K +3.44%G +0.659%2.9%2026-03-20 23:15
Betway1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -8.29%E -7.40%K -69.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +8.67%E +1.45%K +1.73%G +0.151%6.0%2026-03-20 22:55
BetUS1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -8.29%E -7.40%K -69.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +8.67%E +1.45%K +1.73%G +0.151%6.0%2026-03-20 23:00
Everygame1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -9.92%E -9.02%K -99.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +8.67%E +1.45%K +1.73%G +0.151%7.6%2026-03-20 22:59
BetOnline.ag1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV +7.95%E +1.33%K +1.60%G +0.127%4.5%2026-03-20 22:55
LowVig.ag1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV +7.95%E +1.33%K +1.60%G +0.127%4.5%2026-03-20 22:55
FanDuel1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +5.05%E +0.871%K +1.05%G +0.053%5.0%2026-03-20 23:14
SportsBet1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +5.05%E +0.871%K +1.05%G +0.053%5.0%2026-03-20 22:55
Bovada1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +4.15%E +0.721%K +0.873%G +0.036%5.1%2026-03-20 23:18
PlayUp1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -7.47%E -6.61%K -57.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +4.15%E +0.721%K +0.873%G +0.036%5.9%2026-03-20 23:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -8.29%E -7.40%K -69.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +4.15%E +0.721%K +0.873%G +0.036%6.7%2026-03-20 22:55
Coral1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -8.29%E -7.40%K -69.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +4.15%E +0.721%K +0.873%G +0.036%6.7%2026-03-20 22:55
GTbets1.16I 86.21%NM 83.16%EV -5.01%E -4.32%K -31.32%G +0.000%5.73I 17.45%NM 16.84%EV +3.78%E +0.660%K +0.800%G +0.030%3.7%2026-03-20 23:00
Bet Right1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:19
Unibet (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 22:49
Casumo1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 22:49
Unibet (NL)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 22:49
Unibet1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 22:50
betPARX1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 22:49
Svenska Spel1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 22:49
ATG (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 22:49
Bally Bet1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 22:49
Hard Rock Bet1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:10
Paddy Power1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 22:55
TAB1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -7.47%E -6.61%K -57.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 22:55
PMU (FR)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -8.29%E -7.40%K -69.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-20 22:49
BoyleSports1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -8.29%E -7.40%K -69.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -0.381%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-20 23:19
DraftKings1.16I 86.21%NM 82.37%EV -5.01%E -4.32%K -31.32%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.63%EV -1.83%E -0.338%K -0.414%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-20 23:20
Unibet (FR)1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -5.01%E -4.32%K -31.32%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -2.19%E -0.406%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-20 22:54
Winamax (DE)1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -3.37%E -2.86%K -18.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -4.00%E -0.755%K -0.931%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-20 23:19
Betr (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -4.91%E -0.935%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 23:20
BetRivers1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -4.91%E -0.935%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 23:20
TABtouch1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -4.91%E -0.935%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 23:20
ReBet1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.01%E -4.32%K -31.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -5.82%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 22:49
LiveScore Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -5.82%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 23:20
Virgin Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -5.82%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 22:49
Grosvenor1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -5.82%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 23:20
LeoVegas1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -7.47%E -6.61%K -57.44%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -7.63%E -1.50%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 23:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 81.99%EV -8.29%E -7.40%K -69.05%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -7.63%E -1.50%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 23:20
1xBet1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -3.37%E -2.86%K -18.74%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -8.53%E -1.69%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-20 23:15
William Hill1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.19%E -3.58%K -24.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.44%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 22:54
Winamax (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.19%E -3.58%K -24.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.44%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 23:20
PointsBet (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.01%E -4.32%K -31.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.44%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 22:49
Bet Victor1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.44%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 23:18
888sport1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.44%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 23:20
Mr Green (SE)1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.44%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 23:20
888sport (SE)1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.44%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 23:20
Fliff1.13I 88.50%NM 81.41%EV -7.47%E -6.61%K -57.44%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.59%EV -10.34%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 23:20
NordicBet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -5.01%E -4.32%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -11.25%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 23:20
Betsson1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -5.01%E -4.32%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -11.25%E -2.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 23:20
theScore Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -4.19%E -3.58%K -24.66%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -12.15%E -2.51%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 23:19
Caesars1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.19%E -3.58%K -24.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -13.06%E -2.72%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 23:19
Fanatics1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.86%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -15.78%E -3.39%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 23:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.16I 86.21%NM 86.12%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.88%0.1%2026-03-20 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.5%2026-03-20 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.5%2026-03-20 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.5%2026-03-20 23:05
ProphetX1.15I 86.96%NM 85.71%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.29%1.4%2026-03-20 23:00
Novig1.15I 86.96%NM 85.63%6.85I 14.60%NM 14.37%1.6%2026-03-20 23:00
Smarkets1.14I 87.72%NM 86.00%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.00%2.0%2026-03-20 23:05