Language:English
Yannick Hanfmann v Marcos Giron
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Yannick Hanfmann (Local)
Prediction 68.79%1.45fair odd
EV -0.936%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%68.49%69.08%71.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.361.4476.92%72.82%73.53%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marcos Giron (Visit)
Prediction 31.21%3.20fair odd
EV +4.54%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +1.93%
Growth +0.088%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.42%31.51%30.92%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.993.003.3537.74%33.45%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yannick Hanfmann (Local): 68.79%; Marcos Giron (Visit): 31.21%. For Marcos Giron (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -8.50%E -6.39%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +4.54%E +1.35%K +1.93%G +0.088% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 08:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.79%EV -5.75%E -4.20%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.21%EV +3.60%E +1.09%K +1.55%G +0.056% | 3.1% | 2026-04-23 09:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +1.42%E +0.436%K +0.630%G +0.009% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +1.42%E +0.436%K +0.630%G +0.009% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -7.82%E -5.83%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV +0.482%E +0.150%K +0.217%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.142%E -0.045%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 07:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.13%E -5.28%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -0.142%E -0.045%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 09:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.50%E -6.39%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -0.142%E -0.045%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -10.57%E -8.13%K -35.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -0.142%E -0.045%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -0.454%E -0.142%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 08:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.75%E -4.20%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -1.70%E -0.541%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -7.13%E -5.28%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -1.70%E -0.541%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 08:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -7.13%E -5.28%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -1.70%E -0.541%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -8.50%E -6.39%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -1.70%E -0.541%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 06:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.75%E -4.20%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -3.26%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.26%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 09:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.26%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.26%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 13:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.13%E -5.28%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.26%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.13%E -5.28%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.26%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -7.82%E -5.83%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.26%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 08:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.50%E -6.39%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.26%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.37%EV -2.31%E -1.63%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.63%EV -4.20%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-21 21:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.06%E -3.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.82%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.13%E -5.28%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 20:01 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.13%E -5.28%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.38%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 20:01 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.94%E -2.69%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.06%E -3.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.94%E -2.69%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.06%E -3.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.94%E -2.69%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.31%E -1.63%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -9.50%E -3.28%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.50%E -3.28%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 07:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.13%E -5.28%K -20.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -9.50%E -3.28%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.31%E -1.63%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.13%E -3.52%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.13%E -3.52%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -11.06%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.18%EV -8.50%E -6.39%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.82%EV -11.06%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 68.51%EV -9.88%E -7.54%K -31.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.49%EV -11.06%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -3.00%E -2.13%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -12.62%E -4.51%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -3.00%E -2.13%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -12.62%E -4.51%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -12.62%E -4.51%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -12.62%E -4.51%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -0.936%E -0.650%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -1.62%E -1.14%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.31%E -1.63%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 09:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.69%E -2.63%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -6.44%E -4.73%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -14.18%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.76%EV -5.06%E -3.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -17.31%E -6.53%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-23 09:12 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Novig◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.52% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.48% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |