Language:English
Raphael Collignon v Matteo Berrettini
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Raphael Collignon (Local)
Prediction 52.41%1.91fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.57%52.33%52.47%52.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.811.821.8557.14%55.22%54.95%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Berrettini (Visit)
Prediction 47.59%2.10fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.12%47.67%47.53%48.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.941.992.002.0551.55%50.18%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Raphael Collignon (Local): 52.41%; Matteo Berrettini (Visit): 47.59%. For Matteo Berrettini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.05, with an expected value of -2.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.03%E -1.64%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.92%E -1.43%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-21 17:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.03%E -1.64%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -6.26%E -3.18%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-21 15:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV -3.56%E -1.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -2.45%E -1.19%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-21 16:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.58%EV -3.56%E -1.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.42%EV -2.92%E -1.43%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-21 22:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.08%E -2.23%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 18:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.08%E -2.23%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 11:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.08%E -2.23%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.30%E -2.67%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.08%E -2.23%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.30%E -2.67%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.08%E -2.23%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -5.30%E -2.67%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 15:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.88%E -1.92%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.88%E -1.92%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 15:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.88%E -1.92%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 20:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.13%E -2.83%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.88%E -1.92%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 17:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 15:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 10:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 15:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 10:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 10:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.83%E -2.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 10:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.78%E -2.92%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 15:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.21%E -3.70%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 15:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.21%E -3.70%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.21%E -3.70%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 15:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -6.18%E -3.45%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.30%E -2.67%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 16:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -6.18%E -3.45%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -6.73%E -3.43%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -6.18%E -3.45%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -6.73%E -3.43%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 20:01 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -6.70%E -3.77%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -7.68%E -3.96%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-21 20:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -7.23%E -4.08%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -7.21%E -3.70%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 17:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.28%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.21%E -3.70%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-21 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.28%E -4.73%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.21%E -3.70%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-21 15:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 18:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43% | 2.6% | 2026-04-21 17:40 |