Language:English
Martin Damm Jr. v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Martin Damm Jr. (Local)
Prediction 26.60%3.76fair odd
EV +3.75%
Edge +0.960%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.048%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.12%26.69%26.50%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.563.553.9030.77%28.09%28.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 73.40%1.36fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -9.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.59%73.31%73.50%75.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.291.291.3280.65%77.69%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Damm Jr. (Local): 26.60%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 73.40%. For Martin Damm Jr. (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.75%.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV +3.75%E +0.960%K +1.29%G +0.048% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -8.99%E -7.25%K -37.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV +1.09%E +0.286%K +0.388%G +0.004% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%EV -4.58%E -3.52%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -0.244%E -0.065%K -0.089%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -3.85%E -2.94%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 01:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.57%E -0.426%K -0.583%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.78%E -5.34%K -25.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 20:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.45%EV -2.37%E -0.646%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.55%EV -3.11%E -2.36%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.90%E -0.796%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.05%E -4.73%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 18:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 16:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 16:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 18:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 18:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.25%E -6.60%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 16:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.56%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.58%E -3.52%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 16:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.56%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.58%E -3.52%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 16:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.56%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.58%E -3.52%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.85%E -2.94%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 16:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.85%E -2.94%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 17:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.58%E -3.52%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 21:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 02:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.05%E -4.73%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 16:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.05%E -4.73%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.05%E -4.73%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.05%E -4.73%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.78%E -5.34%K -25.13%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.25%E -6.60%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.58%E -3.52%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -6.05%E -4.73%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -6.05%E -4.73%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-24 02:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -13.55%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.32%E -4.12%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 22:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29% | 4.0% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15% | 10.5% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15% | 10.5% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.31% | 11.2% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.54% | 12.1% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |