Language:English
Fabian Marozsan v Ethan Quinn
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fabian Marozsan (Local)
Prediction 58.90%1.70fair odd
EV +7.79%
Edge +4.26%
Kelly +9.39%
Growth +0.732%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%58.35%59.03%61.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.611.601.8366.23%61.99%62.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ethan Quinn (Visit)
Prediction 41.10%2.43fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.570%
Kelly -0.977%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.93%41.65%40.97%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.252.252.4052.36%44.44%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fabian Marozsan (Local): 58.90%; Ethan Quinn (Visit): 41.10%. For Fabian Marozsan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.79%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +7.79%E +4.26%K +9.39%G +0.732% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -21.50%E -11.26%K -23.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 10:53 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV +3.67%E +2.08%K +4.83%G +0.177% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -12.46%E -5.85%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV +2.49%E +1.43%K +3.37%G +0.084% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-23 10:42 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV +2.49%E +1.43%K +3.37%G +0.084% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -11.23%E -5.20%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-23 10:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV +2.49%E +1.43%K +3.37%G +0.084% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -11.23%E -5.20%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-23 10:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV +2.49%E +1.43%K +3.37%G +0.084% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -15.34%E -7.45%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 10:42 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV +1.31%E +0.764%K +1.82%G +0.024% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 10:42 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV +0.135%E +0.080%K +0.193%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -11.23%E -5.20%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 10:42 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV +0.135%E +0.080%K +0.193%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -11.64%E -5.41%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:41 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -0.454%E -0.269%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -11.64%E -5.41%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 10:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.63%E -0.977%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.63%E -0.977%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -2.81%E -1.70%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 10:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -2.81%E -1.70%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 10:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -2.81%E -1.70%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.40%E -2.07%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.58%E -2.83%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -5.07%E -2.19%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.58%E -2.83%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.17%E -3.21%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.42%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.42%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -5.07%E -2.19%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.76%E -3.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.34%E -3.99%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -1.37%E -0.570%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.34%E -3.99%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.93%E -4.39%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -6.93%E -4.39%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -6.30%E -2.76%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -6.93%E -4.39%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -6.30%E -2.76%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.52%E -4.79%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.19%E -0.920%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.52%E -4.79%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.52%E -4.79%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%EV -7.52%E -4.79%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -6.30%E -2.76%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.52%E -4.79%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -7.52%E -4.79%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -8.11%E -5.20%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -8.11%E -5.20%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -8.11%E -5.20%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.70%E -5.61%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.37%E -0.570%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.70%E -5.61%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.70%E -5.61%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.70%E -5.61%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -9.29%E -6.03%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -3.42%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%EV -9.29%E -6.03%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -9.88%E -6.46%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -1.37%E -0.570%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -9.88%E -6.46%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -2.19%E -0.920%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -9.88%E -6.46%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -2.60%E -1.10%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -11.06%E -7.32%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 0.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.02% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.98% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |