Language:English
Emilio Nava v Valentin Vacherot
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Emilio Nava (Local)
Prediction 27.22%3.67fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.412%
Kelly +0.563%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 3.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.25%27.48%27.08%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.433.403.7334.72%29.16%29.41%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valentin Vacherot (Visit)
Prediction 72.78%1.37fair odd
EV +1.89%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +4.72%
Growth +0.089%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.29%72.52%72.92%74.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.311.301.4079.37%76.38%76.92%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Emilio Nava (Local): 27.22%; Valentin Vacherot (Visit): 72.78%. For Valentin Vacherot (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -21.60%E -7.50%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV +1.89%E +1.35%K +4.72%G +0.089% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 06:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.18%EV -6.36%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.82%EV -1.75%E -1.30%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -2.48%E -1.85%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -3.21%E -2.41%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.21%E -2.41%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.54%EV -9.35%E -2.81%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.46%EV -3.21%E -2.41%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.21%E -2.41%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.05%EV -3.09%E -0.868%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.95%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.05%EV -3.09%E -0.868%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.95%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-24 03:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.79%EV -6.63%E -1.93%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 20:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 23:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -0.640%E -0.175%K -0.241%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -4.66%E -3.56%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-24 03:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.66%E -3.56%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.66%E -3.56%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.66%E -3.56%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -0.640%E -0.175%K -0.241%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 20:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 03:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 21:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 22:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.08%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-24 02:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.39%E -4.15%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 21:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.722%E +0.195%K +0.267%G +0.002% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.84%E -5.35%K -24.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.84%E -5.35%K -24.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.45%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.57%E -5.96%K -28.04%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-24 01:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.25%EV +1.54%E +0.412%K +0.563%G +0.009% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.75%EV -8.30%E -6.59%K -31.92%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-24 03:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Novig◎ | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.49% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.51% | 2.3% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 2.4% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |