Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Fabian Marozsan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 62.47%1.60fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.65%62.47%62.50%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.501.501.5769.93%66.58%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fabian Marozsan (Visit)
Prediction 37.53%2.66fair odd
EV -0.534%
Edge -0.202%
Kelly -0.324%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%37.53%37.50%39.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.552.6543.48%39.46%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 62.47%; Fabian Marozsan (Visit): 37.53%. For Fabian Marozsan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -0.534%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -1.93%E -1.23%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -9.17%E -3.79%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 01:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.55%E -1.64%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -2.55%E -1.64%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -5.04%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -2.55%E -1.64%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -5.04%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-24 01:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.18%E -2.05%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 22:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.18%E -2.05%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -3.16%E -1.23%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.18%E -2.05%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.43%E -2.89%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.16%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 01:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.43%E -2.89%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 20:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.43%E -2.89%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 20:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.05%E -3.32%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.05%E -3.32%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 01:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.05%E -3.32%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.05%E -3.32%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.16%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.05%E -3.32%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 20:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.05%E -3.32%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 20:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.05%E -3.32%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 01:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -0.534%E -0.202%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 18:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.16%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 18:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.16%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.16%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 17:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.16%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.16%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -6.91%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 22:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 20:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.30%E -4.20%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.93%E -4.65%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.28%E -0.489%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.55%E -5.10%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -8.18%E -5.56%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -8.18%E -5.56%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.18%E -5.56%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -6.16%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.42%E -6.50%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -2.41%E -0.927%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.84%EV -9.42%E -6.50%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -11.79%E -5.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-24 01:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.33%EV -9.42%E -6.50%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -13.67%E -5.94%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-23 20:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -10.05%E -6.98%K -22.84%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -1.66%E -0.634%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 18:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.43%EV -10.67%E -7.46%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.57%EV -6.91%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-23 15:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65% | 1.9% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65% | 1.9% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65% | 1.9% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31% | 2.0% | 2026-04-24 02:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 01:10 |