Language:English
Alexei Popyrin v Martin Damm Jr.
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexei Popyrin (Local)
Prediction 63.35%1.58fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.757%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.00%63.30%63.41%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.501.5669.44%66.71%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Martin Damm Jr. (Visit)
Prediction 36.65%2.73fair odd
EV +0.801%
Edge +0.291%
Kelly +0.458%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%36.70%36.59%39.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.552.7541.67%38.94%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexei Popyrin (Local): 63.35%; Martin Damm Jr. (Visit): 36.65%. For Martin Damm Jr. (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.801%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.78%E -6.10%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.801%E +0.291%K +0.458%G +0.004% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 05:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -5.62%E -3.77%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -1.77%E -0.659%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 09:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -6.25%E -4.22%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -2.13%E -0.798%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 09:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.62%E -3.77%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.62%E -3.77%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -8.15%E -5.62%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 11:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.16%EV -2.45%E -1.59%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.84%EV -3.23%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 08:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.78%E -6.10%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.96%E -1.51%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 09:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -1.81%E -1.17%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 11:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.08%E -2.01%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-23 11:28 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.62%E -3.77%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.25%E -4.22%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 09:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.25%E -4.22%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 11:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -1.81%E -1.17%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -5.43%E -2.10%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.18%E -0.757%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 09:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.18%E -0.757%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 09:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -2.45%E -1.59%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 11:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.72%E -2.44%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 11:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 09:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.62%E -3.77%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 10:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.25%E -4.22%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.25%E -4.22%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.15%E -5.62%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 11:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.15%E -5.62%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 09:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.66%EV -8.15%E -5.62%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.34%EV -6.90%E -2.72%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.72%E -2.44%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.36%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 09:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.35%E -2.88%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -8.36%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.36%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 09:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.36%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 09:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.25%E -4.22%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.36%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 22:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.25%E -4.22%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.36%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 09:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -1.18%E -0.757%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -10.56%E -4.33%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -3.72%E -2.44%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -12.03%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 11:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -4.98%E -3.32%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -12.03%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 11:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77% | 0.7% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.33% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.67% | 2.5% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.83% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.17% | 2.7% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |