Language:English
Alexandre Muller v Jan-Lennard Struff
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexandre Muller (Local)
Prediction 58.12%1.72fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.706%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.67%59.47%57.89%72.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.601.621.7077.52%62.37%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit)
Prediction 41.88%2.39fair odd
EV +42.40%
Edge +12.47%
Kelly +17.67%
Growth +7.49%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%40.53%42.11%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.282.233.4050.00%43.78%44.84%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexandre Muller (Local): 58.12%; Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit): 41.88%. For Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +42.40%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -25.03%E -19.40%K -86.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +42.40%E +12.47%K +17.67%G +7.49% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 12:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -21.54%E -15.96%K -61.55%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 29.87%EV +32.77%E +10.34%K +15.10%G +4.95% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 12:53 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -13.99%E -9.45%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +13.08%E +4.85%K +7.70%G +1.01% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -13.99%E -9.45%K -29.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV +4.71%E +1.88%K +3.14%G +0.148% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 12:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -7.01%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV +1.36%E +0.560%K +0.954%G +0.013% | 3.8% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -11.08%E -7.24%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -0.320%E -0.135%K -0.232%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -11.08%E -7.24%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -0.320%E -0.135%K -0.232%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 12:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.67%E -1.60%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.01%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.67%E -1.60%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.59%E -4.78%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -3.67%E -1.60%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.51%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.51%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.51%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.51%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.51%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.51%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.51%E -1.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -6.18%E -2.76%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.60%E -2.96%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.60%E -2.96%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.60%E -2.96%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.60%E -2.96%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.43%E -3.99%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.01%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.01%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.01%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.95%E -4.63%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.95%E -4.63%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -9.34%E -5.98%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.95%E -4.63%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -2.94%E -1.76%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -12.05%E -5.74%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -12.05%E -5.74%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -12.05%E -5.74%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -1.20%E -0.706%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -14.14%E -6.90%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -1.20%E -0.706%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -14.14%E -6.90%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -1.20%E -0.706%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -14.14%E -6.90%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.87%EV -8.17%E -5.17%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -16.24%E -8.12%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.77% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.23% | 0.0% | 2026-04-22 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98% | 0.8% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.55% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.45% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:54 |