Language:English
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo v Grigor Dimitrov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local)
Prediction 49.97%2.00fair odd
EV +5.93%
Edge +2.80%
Kelly +5.29%
Growth +0.314%
assuming max odds 2.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.08%49.75%50.00%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.912.1255.56%52.46%52.36%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grigor Dimitrov (Visit)
Prediction 50.03%2.00fair odd
EV +0.068%
Edge +0.034%
Kelly +0.068%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.45%50.25%50.00%54.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.881.882.0057.47%53.10%53.33%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local): 49.97%; Grigor Dimitrov (Visit): 50.03%. For Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV +5.93%E +2.80%K +5.29%G +0.314% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -12.94%E -7.44%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 12:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.33%EV +0.431%E +0.215%K +0.427%G +0.002% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67%EV -5.94%E -3.16%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-23 12:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.068%E -0.034%K -0.068%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.94%E -5.52%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 12:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -0.568%E -0.285%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -0.568%E -0.285%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 12:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -1.57%E -0.796%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 12:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -1.57%E -0.796%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -9.44%E -5.21%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.94%E -5.52%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -12.44%E -7.11%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 12:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.26%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%EV -2.93%E -1.51%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 15:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 15:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 15:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 15:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 06:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 08:38 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 08:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.94%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 11:56 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.07%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.93%EV -7.94%E -4.31%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.07%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.93%EV -7.94%E -4.31%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.56%E -2.94%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -6.06%E -3.23%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV +0.068%E +0.034%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 11:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -6.06%E -3.23%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -2.93%E -1.51%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 11:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -6.06%E -3.23%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -4.94%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -1.43%E -0.727%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -1.93%E -0.986%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 05:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 20:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -7.06%E -3.80%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 12:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 11:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 20:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 12:12 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 20:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 20:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 12:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -5.94%E -3.16%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 20:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -5.94%E -3.16%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 20:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.06%E -5.59%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -4.94%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 12:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87% | 0.3% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12% | 0.8% | 2026-04-23 12:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12% | 0.8% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12% | 0.8% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34% | 2.4% | 2026-04-23 12:13 |