L’École des cotes

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo v Grigor Dimitrov

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-23 12:25 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local)

Prévision 49.97%2.00cote équitable
EV +5.93%
Avantage +2.80%
Kelly +5.29%
Croissance +0.314%

avec la cote maximale 2.12

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
45.08%49.75%50.00%51.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.801.911.912.1255.56%52.46%52.36%47.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Grigor Dimitrov (Visiteur)

Prévision 50.03%2.00cote équitable
EV +0.068%
Avantage +0.034%
Kelly +0.068%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.45%50.25%50.00%54.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.741.881.882.0057.47%53.10%53.33%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV +5.93%E +2.80%K +5.29%G +0.314%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -12.94%E -7.44%K -17.49%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 12:19
GTbets2.01I 49.75%NM 48.33%EV +0.431%E +0.215%K +0.427%G +0.002%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67%EV -5.94%E -3.16%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 12:19
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.068%E -0.034%K -0.068%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.94%E -5.52%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 12:10
NordicBet1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -0.568%E -0.285%K -0.574%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 12:14
Betsson1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -0.568%E -0.285%K -0.574%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 12:10
Betclic (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -1.57%E -0.796%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-23 12:19
Unibet (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -1.57%E -0.796%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -9.44%E -5.21%K -11.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 12:20
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.94%E -5.52%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 12:14
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -12.44%E -7.11%K -16.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 12:15
Casumo1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
Unibet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
LeoVegas1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
Svenska Spel1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
Bally Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
betPARX1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:00
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 50.26%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%EV -2.93%E -1.51%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 12:20
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 15:24
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 15:24
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 15:24
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 15:24
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 06:00
LowVig.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 08:38
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 08:39
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.94%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 12:20
Hard Rock Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 12:00
PMU (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 11:56
LiveScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.07%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.93%EV -7.94%E -4.31%K -9.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 12:00
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.07%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.93%EV -7.94%E -4.31%K -9.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 12:00
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.44%E -4.61%K -10.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 12:20
Bet Right1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.56%E -2.94%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:20
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -6.06%E -3.23%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV +0.068%E +0.034%K +0.068%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 11:10
DraftKings1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -6.06%E -3.23%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -2.93%E -1.51%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 11:00
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -6.06%E -3.23%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -4.94%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 12:20
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -1.43%E -0.727%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-23 12:14
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -1.93%E -0.986%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-23 12:14
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 12:20
Caesars1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 05:24
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.56%E -3.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.44%E -3.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 20:25
Betr (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -7.06%E -3.80%K -8.21%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 12:19
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:00
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:00
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 11:00
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 20:50
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.56%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.44%E -4.02%K -8.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 12:12
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 12:14
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 20:50
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 20:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 12:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -5.94%E -3.16%K -6.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 20:49
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -8.56%E -4.68%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -5.94%E -3.16%K -6.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 20:49
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.06%E -5.59%K -12.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -4.94%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 12:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87%0.3%2026-04-23 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-04-23 12:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-04-23 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-04-23 12:14
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-04-23 12:20
Novig1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%2.4%2026-04-23 12:13