Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jiri Lehecka v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

2026-10-04 08:10 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jiri Lehecka (Local)

Predicción 68.68%1.46momio equitativo
EV -3.85%
Ventaja -2.75%
Kelly -9.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.83%68.68%68.62%70.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.371.361.4075.76%73.20%73.53%71.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visitante)

Predicción 31.32%3.19momio equitativo
EV +2.10%
Ventaja +0.644%
Kelly +0.928%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.74%31.32%31.38%33.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.703.013.043.2637.04%33.21%32.89%30.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jiri Lehecka (Local): 68.68%; Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visitante): 31.32%. Para Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.19. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.26, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.10%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.26%EV -5.22%E -3.78%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.74%EV +2.10%E +0.644%K +0.928%G +0.019%3.1%2026-10-03 12:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -5.22%E -3.78%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -0.094%E -0.030%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-03 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -5.22%E -3.78%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -0.094%E -0.030%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-03 13:25
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -0.094%E -0.030%K -0.043%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 13:01
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.91%E -4.31%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 13:15
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.91%E -4.31%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 12:21
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.91%E -4.31%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 12:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.91%E -4.31%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 12:45
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:30
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:40
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:41
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.91%E -0.940%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 13:15
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.91%E -4.31%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -4.48%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.48%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 12:41
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.25%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.75%EV -4.79%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 12:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.64%EV -5.22%E -3.78%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.36%EV -5.42%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 13:09
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.22%E -3.78%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:36
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-03 12:30
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-03 12:30
GTbets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 12:11
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 12:10
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.53%E -3.26%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.53%E -3.26%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:11
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.53%E -3.26%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 12:11
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -9.34%E -7.08%K -29.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-03 12:45
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.22%E -3.78%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.18%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 12:10
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.22%E -3.78%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.18%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 12:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.22%E -3.78%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.18%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 12:30
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.18%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 12:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-03 12:36
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -5.91%E -4.31%K -15.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.24%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 12:11
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 12:09
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 12:15
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 12:50
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.59%E -4.85%K -18.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 12:28
ReBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -5.91%E -4.31%K -15.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -10.74%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 12:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.07%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -13.87%E -5.05%K -7.93%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 12:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.07%EV -7.28%E -5.39%K -20.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -13.87%E -5.05%K -7.93%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 12:13
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.83%EV -7.97%E -5.95%K -23.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -15.44%E -5.72%K -9.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 12:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-10-03 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%9.1%2026-10-03 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%9.1%2026-10-03 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%9.1%2026-10-03 13:40