Language:English
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Ben Shelton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local)
Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV +8.27%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.190%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.69%23.51%23.66%25.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.014.004.6026.67%24.91%25.00%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ben Shelton (Visit)
Prediction 76.46%1.31fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -10.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.95%76.49%76.34%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.251.2783.33%80.52%80.00%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local): 23.54%; Ben Shelton (Visit): 76.46%. For Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +8.27%E +1.80%K +2.30%G +0.190% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -8.24%E -6.87%K -41.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +5.92%E +1.31%K +1.69%G +0.100% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +5.92%E +1.31%K +1.69%G +0.100% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.24%E -6.87%K -41.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52%EV +1.21%E +0.281%K +0.366%G +0.004% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -1.14%E -0.272%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.66%E -2.90%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.30%EV -1.62%E -0.386%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.70%EV -2.89%E -2.28%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -2.32%E -0.559%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.11I 24.33%NM 23.61%EV -3.26%E -0.794%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.39%EV -2.89%E -2.28%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.95%E -4.84%K -25.87%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.50%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -4.67%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -3.66%E -2.90%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 15:08 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -4.67%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -4.91%E -1.22%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -3.66%E -2.90%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -4.91%E -1.22%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -3.66%E -2.90%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.67%EV -5.15%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.95%E -4.84%K -25.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.95%E -4.84%K -25.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.95%E -4.84%K -25.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.85%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.24%E -6.87%K -41.22%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.24%EV -6.56%E -1.65%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.76%EV -2.89%E -2.28%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -7.73%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -9.38%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -9.38%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -2.89%E -2.28%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.42%E -3.54%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.19%E -4.18%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.72%E -5.50%K -30.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13% | 1.6% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13% | 1.6% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13% | 1.6% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88% | 2.7% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Novig◎ | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.78% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.22% | 2.8% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |