Language:English
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Denis Shapovalov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local)
Prediction 54.84%1.82fair odd
EV -0.198%
Edge -0.109%
Kelly -0.242%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.36%54.85%54.81%56.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.731.8259.88%57.60%57.80%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denis Shapovalov (Visit)
Prediction 45.16%2.21fair odd
EV +0.715%
Edge +0.321%
Kelly +0.581%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.26%45.15%45.19%47.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2350.00%47.73%47.62%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local): 54.84%; Denis Shapovalov (Visit): 45.16%. For Denis Shapovalov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.715%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV +0.715%E +0.321%K +0.581%G +0.004% | 3.7% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV +0.715%E +0.321%K +0.581%G +0.004% | 3.7% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.54%E -0.708%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 04:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.54%E -0.708%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.54%E -0.708%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 04:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -7.33%E -4.34%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -1.54%E -0.708%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 04:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -7.33%E -4.34%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -2.45%E -1.13%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 04:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 04:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 04:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.25%E -2.01%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -4.70%E -2.23%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 04:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -4.70%E -2.23%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.94%E -1.66%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-05 04:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.49%E -1.98%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 04:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 04:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 04:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.42%E -5.04%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 04:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.06%E -2.91%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.58%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 04:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-05 04:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-05 04:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -0.746%E -0.412%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -9.22%E -4.59%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.198%E -0.109%K -0.242%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.29%E -0.719%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 04:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 04:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 04:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 04:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.13%E -2.97%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 04:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.68%E -3.30%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 04:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30% | 2.6% | 2026-03-05 04:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.24% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 04:30 |